That comes after allegations of a rape in the ministerial wing of Parliament House, just 50 metres away from the PM’s office. After the profound mishandling of that revelation, including the minister the alleged victim worked for describing her as a “lying cow”. After historical rape allegations against the nation’s first law officer, the Attorney-General. Vehemently denied. After revelations of lewd acts being committed on the desks of female MPs by Coalition staffers. After a Liberal backbencher was exposed for having taken a photograph of a woman’s behind, capturing her underwear deliberately.
Throw in that the PM was forced to apologise for falsely levelling an accusation of a bathroom assault at a media organisation during a press conference — weaponising the claim to deflect criticism.
It hasn’t been a great month on any measure, yet at the end of it 55 per cent of Australians are satisfied with the PM’s performance.
That confirms why Morrison remains the firm favourite to win the next election, notwithstanding his threadbare majority and the same Newspoll revealing Labor is ahead on the two party vote, 52-48 per cent.
To be sure, Morrison and the Coalition have their work cut out to win back support among women. And their efforts so far suggest that job isn’t going very well. But the PM chooses the timing of the election and he has up to a year to call it.
Before then he’ll release an action plan to address the problems women face, he’ll hand down a budget and he’ll inevitably mount a scare campaign about the risks of returning to Labor in the volatile post-pandemic world.
Federal elections are invariably tight contests, more so than many state elections are. Speaking of state elections, how the Labor wins in WA and Queensland impact the federal vote is hard to say. On the one hand, they mean that Labor has a mighty state-based infrastructure behind any federal campaign — especially in WA, where the state Liberals only won two seats in the lower house. But on the flip side, voters often like to balance representation between tiers of government, so Labor wins at state level in WA and Queensland might help the Coalition federally.
As long as they aren’t completely on the nose come the next election, that is.
Today’s Newspoll tells us that the PM has taken a hit, with his personal numbers falling and his lead on the better PM rating also narrowing. But he remains popular even if his party’s brand has been diminished.
While many Australians are questioning his leadership, especially women, a post pandemic glow remains over Scott Morrison. A 55 per cent approval rating in the face of such problems and such poor use of political rhetoric speaks to that.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University
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After what can only be described as the worst political month imaginable for Scott Morrison, today’s Newspoll has delivered him a satisfaction rating of 55 per cent out in the electorate.