There are growing echoes of the disastrous and divisive debate over the indigenous voice to parliament emerging in the political fight over Australia’s acceptance of people coming from the war-torn Gaza zone.
Anthony Albanese, having missed or dismissed the warning signs for Labor and his leadership during the year-long indigenous voice debate, which ended in abject defeat, needs to be careful he doesn’t follow the same path of political misjudgment.
The echoes of the dismal voice defeat are deep-toned and faint right now but they are growing by the day and the Prime Minister needs to ensure he doesn’t put blood in the water.
After starting a referendum debate on the back of majority sympathy, progressive support, indigenous leaders’ campaigning, corporate backing, academic urging and a lack of public consultation, Albanese’s response to Peter Dutton’s decision to oppose the voice was to accuse him of negativity, division, lowering public standards and threatening our relations with regional neighbours as he allowed others to accuse the Opposition Leader of racism.
Albanese accused people opposing the referendum of being “chicken Littles”.
Dutton’s response was to ask reasonable questions, seek facts and information, encourage indigenous leaders who did not support the voice and warn people that there would be unintended consequences for giving an indigenous voice body the power to intervene in government decision-making.
Public opinion flipped, Albanese was accused of misleading the public about the extent of the voice and his commitment to truth-telling, as well as using insults instead of providing factual argument.
Dutton got the national mood and the politics right while Albanese has suffered ever since for the misjudgment.
The current debate over immigration and the security checks on people coming to Australia from Gaza – 3000 mostly tourist visa issued and 1300 arrivals since the October Hamas terror attack – is shaping in a similar fashion to the voice debate.
Labor is relying on genuine and general public sympathy for refugees from war zones, vague inferences that ASIO is involved in the visa process, supporting Muslim leaders’ criticism of Dutton, encouraging “racist” slurs without explicitly repeating them and holding back key facts.
Dutton is pursuing reasonable questions seeking facts, accusing Albanese of misusing ASIO boss Mike Burgess for political cover, tapping into wider security concerns and dismissing allegations of racism against him and those who want increased security checks on Gaza visas.
Labor’s response in recent days has been dangerously mixed and reminiscent of the failed voice campaign despite the winter Cabinet shuffle which replaced Linda Burney as Minister for Indigenous Australians and Andrew Giles as Immigration Minister.
When Dutton called for an end to bringing in people from Gaza without the full security checks in a third country and involving ASIO, face-to-face interviews and biometric data for identity, as was the case in Syria and Afghanistan, Albanese accused him of sowing division and declared ASIO was involved in security checks.
Dutton struck last week in parliament and exposed Albanese for misquoting the ASIO chief, as he made it clear ASIO was not involved in every tourist visa check, some of which were issued online within an hour.
On Sunday Industry Minister Ed Husic – whose Chifley electorate in western Sydney has a high Muslim population – shifted ground and dropped the inference that ASIO was involved in every check and simply said it was a more convenient and faster method.
Early on Monday Albanese also shifted the argument on ABC radio, while not disassociating himself from teal independent Zali Steggall’s claim Dutton that was a racist, and said — correctly — the Gaza border was shut and no Gazans were coming out.
“Peter Dutton … knows that at the moment no one is coming out of Gaza. Because in order to leave Gaza, of course Israel, due to the nature of the situation there, was having to approve people going through the Rafah crossing in order to depart earlier on,” Albanese said.
“I think Peter Dutton is deeply divisive and that creates a risk.
“I was astounded that last week when we welcomed home our Olympians, a moment of national unity, Peter Dutton once again showed that there’s no moment too big for him to show how small he is.”
But evidence is emerging that, once again, the public mood is shifting in Dutton’s favour and that Albanese is, once again, making an error in judging the public mood, not answering reasonable concerns and being beaten by Dutton.
The latest polling is showing Labor is, at best, treading water and on key issues going backwards as Coalition support rises and Dutton closes on Albanese as preferred prime minister.
Significantly, the latest Freshwater Strategy poll shows that since the Gaza visa debate began not only has Dutton closed on Albanese as leader but Labor’s support on the issues of national security and immigration and asylum has fallen markedly.
The government’s handling of national security is down six percentage points to 24 compared to the Coalition’s 44 per cent; on immigration and asylum seekers Labor is down 4 points to 24 compared with the Coalition’s 38 per cent and on the related issue of crime ALP support fell a point to 22 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 38 per cent.
During the voice debate Albanese dismissed the polling – just as he is dismissing the polling now – and stuck to his failing strategy.
There is no sign Albanese is about to change his direction on Gaza visas or the abuse of Dutton but he should cock an ear to the deep-toned echoes of the failed voice debate.
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