Peter Dutton election messaging needs to change to fight Albanese’s polling with voters
The business and investment communities are in shock to discover that opinion polls show Anthony Albanese looks set to win the 2025 election convincingly.
In their eyes, Albanese is a Prime Minister who has made a series of mistakes and therefore was likely to lose the election or scrape in with a minority government.
Yet the opinion polls show voters see the world differently.
In the eyes of the business community, the government has legislated lower productivity via its industrial relations laws, introduced high-cost and uneconomic electricity generation projects, contributed to a cost of living crisis, done nothing to avert the housing crisis, and greatly reduced the standard of living for ordinary Australians.
Unemployment was kept low with massive state and federal government hiring and expenditures, leaving high federal and state debt. What’s happening?
Probably the clearest explanation comes from former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who says when he was in office, Treasury dramatically underestimated future revenues, so the previous government handed Albanese vast, hidden surpluses that he has been spending.
Only now has that money run out, and so the government is projecting vast new deficits for the foreseeable future. This is not being reflected in opinion polls.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton performed brilliantly in the voice referendum but is not conveying a clear message in this campaign.
And there are some lessons from Victoria.
Victorians have experienced one of the worst governments since federation, but voters in 2022 gave Daniel Andrews a clear majority for a third term.
Andrews was a master campaigner and was able to distil ideas into short grabs that appealed to voters.
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Few will match the skill of Andrews, but he showed how you can convey messages in the current communications environment.
In Queensland, David Crisafulli’s four-word slogan “adult crime, adult time” played a huge role in his win.
Dutton faces Albanese, who is a brilliant campaigner, not so much in one-liners but in a folksy, comforting approach that voters relate to.
In the voice referendum Dutton took a step back and allowed Jacinta Price to use her skills of distilling complex issues into simple ideas that voters could relate to. It completely overwhelmed Albanese’s folksy style.
Dutton does not have Price alongside him in this campaign and so far has not been able to put his messages in a simple form that voters can relate to.
Yet it’s not that hard. Here are a few thoughts.
Gas
Rather than verbal gymnastics about reserving gas, which would make existing contracts complex, all he needs to say is that he will accelerate the development of the vast Beetaloo NT deposits and make sure there is plenty for Australian domestic use.
Combining that gas with renewables, Dutton could promise to deliver lower power prices without unsustainable subsidies. A slogan could be “vote for lower power prices”.
Nuclear
End the ban on nuclear but wait for the new technology improvements before going further. You have to sell people on nuclear before giving detailed plans.
Housing
Dutton has a complex housing policy that needs to be distilled to tell young voters that if they have have a job and earn a minimum amount of money they will be able to buy a dwelling with the help of much better housing supply, different bank lending rules and access to superannuation.
Distil that into 10 words and campaign like crazy among young people, plus parents and grandparents who are horrified by the current situation and are forced to risk their own savings.
IR and regulation
In industrial relations follow the example of Hawke and Keating and announce a summit of all parties. In advance, pick up just one of the government’s current policies to reverse. I would suggest the attack on small truckies to boost road transport costs.
Family business is suffering under the weight of regulation and the unfairness of the tax collection system. Bring out simple family business solutions such as “we will make tax collection fair”.
The government is proposing a new “savers tax” delivered via taxing unrealised gains in the higher end of superannuation.
Putting a 30 per cent tax on income from superannuation assets above $3m is not only controversial but unnecessary, and implementing a savers tax via unrealised gains indicates a wider agenda. No savers tax.
Messaging
In the referendum the coalition used all the avenues available to convey simple messages. You can’t do that with long, complex messages.
And then Dutton has a habit of machine-gunning voter groups with throwaway ideas.
Dutton wants Victorian votes but then says he will live in Sydney rather than Canberra. What was he thinking?
Albanese is too smart to make that mistake when Victorians are suffering.
And then Dutton appeared to make a blanket ruling against working from home in the public service.
He almost certainly didn’t mean that, but that’s the message families in public and private employment received. At that point many family voters turned off Dutton, and Albanese has their vote.
Albanese wants workers’ wages to rise faster than inflation. Productivity can’t improve because he legislated to lower productivity. That means massive job losses. That’s the start of a potential fear campaign.
Losses in the first week of a campaign are very difficult to recover.
All the above is elementary campaigning 2025-style.
Albanese plans each day with a message that is simple and delivered with his folksy touch. Dutton must quickly simplify messages and probably deliver them with intensity, which is more in keeping with his style.
Meanwhile, prepare for a continuation of the prime ministership of Albanese.
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