Turnbull’s review to keep focus on long-term game

Squeezed between One Nation and the Labor/Greens, the Turnbull government has given itself the widest possible canvas on which to consider how best to meet Australia’s 2030 climate change promises without turning the lights out on homes or industry.

The federal government’s first climate policy review since the Paris Agreement was signed marks the beginning of a never-ending, UN-sanctioned regime of rolling revisions.

For the Turnbull government the politics remain tricky. Despite the switch from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull, the Coalition is struggling for credibility with climate groups. It has staked out the mainstream ground with a focus on energy security and affordability.

The government’s task with the review is to find headline emissions savings from better land management, building design, transport and credible international permits to provide breathing space while the electricity sector goes through what appears to be an inevitable “great disruption”.

The wildcard remains gas: what future role it will play in power generation and where supplies will come from given Australia’s existing production is increasingly heading overseas as exports. Unanswered is whether new generation, super-efficient coal and gas power generators will even be considered as part of a long-term base-load solution.

But after power catastrophes in South Australia and Victoria, the federal government has made clear it sees a more flexible national gas market as essential to reinforcing the roll-out of renewables at least.

The impact on jobs, trade, investment, households and regional Australia are the benchmarks against which the review will be measured.

Australia is sticking to its pledge of a 26 to 28 per cent reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 but will be mindful of any wane, or indeed spike, in global enthusiasm for action.

Above all, the Turnbull government appears to remain focused on the long-term game.