Turnbull should go to future-proof the Coalition

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: Kym Smith

The government is gripped by a sense of despair.

Anger about Malcolm Turnbull’s coup against Tony Abbott has long since subsided. In its place is a firm resolve to future-proof the Liberal-National Coalition by removing a principal threat, the Prime Minister. In an extraordinary turn of events, Turnbull has capped off a long losing streak on Newspoll with disastrous by-election results and a series of captain’s calls that have left MPs reeling. The high tide of chaos may subside. But there is a deep-rooted belief that Turnbull is incompetent and inflicting irreversible damage on the party.

This week will make or break Turnbull’s government. With a looming Senate showdown over company tax cuts and mounting internal dissent over the national energy guarantee, the Prime Minister is closer to the brink than ever.

He is bleeding political capital at a time he should be consolidating gains. In the past few days he has tried to save his leadership by reversing course on two aspects of the NEG: the 26 per cent Paris emissions target and the omission of a price cap. But he delivered the policy reversals in a series of captain’s calls. Bridget McKenzie, the deputy Nationals leader and a member of Turnbull’s cabinet, said she had not been consulted on the mooted changes. Other MPs have disclosed privately that they did not know about the PM’s plans before he went public with them.

There is mounting concern that Turnbull is a loose cannon not shy of friendly fire. At the time of writing, Coalition MPs still had not seen the draft NEG legislation that the Prime Minister gave Labor last week.

With only months before the next federal election, the government needs to present a united front. But Coalition MPs are doubting Turnbull’s team loyalty.

They want a safe pair of hands to rebuild the foundations of the party and fortify it against a future Labor government.

The old guard fears that Turnbull is doing long-term damage that younger MPs will struggle to reverse. Some cite the Paris emissions target as an example. If legislated, a future Labor-Greens government would increase the target. The next generation of Coalition MPs would be left hamstrung — unable to oppose legislation that their party had introduced.

Thus far, Turnbull’s NEG is proving unpopular with Liberals and Nationals as well as Labor and the Greens. His apparent dismissal of constructive critique from Coalition MPs threatens government unity and leaves the energy guarantee severely compromised. Unless Turnbull comes out of his isolation tank and joins the broad church of the Liberal Coalition, the NEG is doomed to fail. His prime ministership will follow suit.

Already Labor has seized on the opportunity to sow doubt about the Prime Minister’s leadership. Bill Shorten called Turnbull arrogant for refusing to allow Coalition MPs to read draft legislation before Labor.

Months away from the next federal election, Turnbull should be leading the broad church with confidence. But he ducked for cover after the disastrous by-election results. He let brewing discontent about Education Minister Simon Birmingham’s handling of the Gonski reforms boil over.

He has failed to mount a convincing case for corporate tax cuts. He cannot shake the Labor frame that he governs for the big end of town. He has yet to create a unifying narrative to give much needed momentum to the government. In successive Newspolls, the result has been self-evident. Once again, there is talk of a leadership spill, but for the first time it has broad support.

MPs from the Liberal Party, the Nationals, the moderate and conservative wings, are ready for a change. They believe the election is all but lost and want to protect the next generation of MPs. This is a legacy battle.

Turnbull has faced dissent before and proven adept at negotiating tight corners. But his political capital is at an all-time low.

The problem is not Turnbull’s style. It is his inability to master the policy cycle. On school education reform, he pitched big, leaned too far left and fell over on the detail. On energy policy, the government has produced a technocratic model where a more comprehensive approach was needed. There is little time to correct course and no margin for error.

Conservative MPs have indicated in-principle support for a more holistic approach to energy policy. They are right to do so. Australia never needed a UN emissions target. It needs a national energy plan based on enduring liberal principles that provide for resource independence, energy security, rational conservation and sustained economic growth.

The government could articulate clear principles, strategies, objectives, goals and quantified targets to provide long-term certainty where piecemeal policy and confusion reign.

Successive governments would be held accountable for national outcomes irrespective of partisan interests, leading in turn to greater investment confidence.

In the absence of a principled national energy plan, we are left with the question of the NEG. The backbench revolt is essentially a call for sensible reform. An energy guarantee can be adopted without compromising Australia’s sovereignty by ceding power to international institutions.

Decoupling the NEG from the Paris target is especially important for the Coalition and the Prime Minister should have known it.

A government that promotes the national interest on sovereign borders cannot defend international interests on the environment. The free world is expected to assume disproportionate responsibility for carbon emissions and fund an expanding international bureaucracy dedicated to “green” economic levelling. And, increasingly, the UN uses green rhetoric to push open-border policy.

If the government had failed to decouple the NEG from the Paris agreement, there would have been a domino effect across critical Coalition portfolios.

If the government can make it through the week in one piece, it has a chance at electoral victory. If ministers resign over the NEG and Turnbull fails to apply sufficient pressure on Labor to pass corporate tax cuts, he will fall from grace with a bang, not a whimper.