THE Asia white paper contains some of the most ambitious benchmarks in Australia's history but the risk is obvious: that the policy framework will fall short of their delivery.
Julia Gillard has given herself a whole-of-government narrative that unites every aspect of her policies under the theme of "unprecedented opportunity" arising from the coming Asian century.
This white paper is a test for the nation, and a test for Labor.
It is about opportunity and challenge.
It is based on the premise that Australia will lift its productivity, competitiveness, innovation, educational excellence and cultural adaptation to Asia.
That means Labor must deliver better outcomes than it has demonstrated over the past four years. It will require not just a superior brand of policy but a cultural transformation within the nation. Labor's sincerity will be judged on whether this narrative feeds into its election strategy. That would be a brave act but it would assist Labor by further moving the policy agenda.
At its most elemental, the white paper tells the Australian people that Asia is now wealthy with a rising middle class that presents new challenges. Success in the Asian century, Ms Gillard said "will be hard fought and hard won".
Decoded, it means we need to toughen up, strive for excellence and improve our performance. It is about productivity and people: a more efficient economy and a more Asian-savvy public.
This document deserves to be taken seriously. Consider the benchmarks it defines by 2025: that our GDP per capita be in the world's top 10 nations; that our school system be in the world's top five nations; that we have 10 universities in the top 100; that all school children have the opportunity to study an Asian language; that Gonski funding should depend upon schools meeting the proposed Asian curriculum; that our innovation be in the top 10 nations; that Australia be in the top five nations for "ease of doing business"; and that our corporate boards and senior public servants have a third of their leaders with knowledge of Asia.
It reveals Labor's obsession with centrally directed plans, targets and benchmarks. Such ambition must be applauded. Yet between the aspiration and the reality falls the shadow. Ultimately, what counts is policy, not benchmarks.
The suspicion is that Labor believes its current policies and their extension will do the job. There was more than a touch of self-satisfaction yesterday. Gillard kept talking about Labor's existing framework: its clean energy policies, its National Broadband Network and its educational investments.
There is, however, new policy in the white paper, notably in relation to the Asian curriculum in schools, 12,000 scholarships to promote people-to-people ties and expansion of tourism and visa arrangements. Labor wants to build new links between business and research capability and seeks better regulatory and competition reform. It promises a modest expansion in diplomatic engagement in the region.
The lift in average real national income to the $73,000 a person target by 2025 assumes a better productivity performance. While business groups praised the white paper, their theme was unsurprising: the need for Labor to improve its fiscal, tax and industrial relations policies to succeed in Asia.
The risk in Labor's approach is that identified by Ross Garnaut in his path-breaking report on Asia to the Hawke government in 1989. Garnaut warned at that time that Australians may think "that they have changed enough" when, in fact, more radical change is required. That is the conundrum: does the white paper have the policy grunt to secure the benchmarks it proclaims?
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