Queensland poll? We don’t even care

As a political scientist (now there’s an oxymoron) I often feel we over-analyse elections as they are unfolding. We tend to infer much more from them than is often warranted. Some sections of the media, in particular, tend to overdramatise elections, focusing on the ­personalities and occasional gaffes. It’s pantomime stuff.

Historically, the traditional media outlets tended to cover the announcements of main parties, listing the promises and reporting key speeches. These days such coverage is considered staid. Now much of what passes as media coverage is playing armchair coaching, adding commentary to commentary.

Social media also has emerged as a vibrant force to compete for attention. It has almost no editorial controls, and anyone from official parties, eager candidates, campaign workers and complete crazies can post anything. They can feature daily diary events, photo-ops, selfies, odd comments or reactions to other events or statements, and even peddle fake news and scaremongering.

There is, however, a danger in being caught up in the swirls of election fervour. It’s thus a good opportunity to inject a dose of reality into the coverage of the recently announced Queensland election. Let’s clear up some misnomers and misapprehensions.

There is little awareness that an election is even on. It is an election with no popular buy-in and there is a palpable mood of “we don’t care”. Many Queenslanders are wondering, after recently voting for four-year fixed terms, why they are even going to the polls.

Voters are largely indifferent to the opinion polls or in how the main political parties are travelling. Many consider the choices to be underwhelming, which may fan the negative sentiment. And if electors are lucky (or unlucky) enough to be actually polled they may not be entirely frank with pollsters. We last saw this “disguised” polling effect most prominently in the 1998 state election.

Even sections of the media seem apathetic. Channel 9 in Brisbane ran several other stories on its main Sunday bulletin before covering the poll announcement. Anyone would expect the Premier’s announcement to headline.

So far there has not been much advertising, almost none on TV and only occasional segments on radio. Candidate signs in people’s yards are starting to go up. Parties are relying mostly on social media to spruik their message.

We are still labouring under the pretence that Queensland is conducting a “state election”. This is a misnomer. The election will be a series of fragmented local and provincial contests fought almost entirely on local issues and with individual seat battles fought tooth and nail. The fact that the eventual date of polling is common seems almost coincidental. Expect quite a deal of weeding out of sitting members, especially if the locals regard their MP as a dud or rival party candidates, including One Nation standing in almost 60 seats, can make headway. Regional disadvantage versus gentrification, and average incomes versus unemployment rates will be major factors as well.

The parties will stage stunts and scripted events, but these won’t electrify the campaign proper. And, as is fast becoming the norm, many people will take the opportunity to vote early starting from November 13.

One serious pundit predicted this week that up to half the voters going to voting booths would ­refuse to take how-to-vote cards, determined instead to make their own preference order selection. If so, this will greatly weaken the ­intended preference flows the main parties hope to create.

There are still many candidates to be nominated (Tuesday is the cut-off date) and the main four parties have not completed their full card of nominations. The Greens and One Nation are likely to stand only in seats where they think they have a realistic chance (and not run in each seat across the state). One Nation with 16-18 per cent statewide support will do well in areas that have the lowest median income levels, are predominantly Anglo, and where jobs are scarce. Although some pollsters predict One Nation may capture five seats, Queensland has 16 seats with median incomes of less than $30,000, with four below $25,000. Seven regions of the state have more than 6 per cent unemployment rates — the central outback, Wide Bay, Townsville, Ipswich, Fitzroy, North Moreton Bay and Logan-Beaudesert. There are ­collectively about 35 seats across these regions.

It looks like only two sitting Labor members — Grace Grace in Brisbane Central (now renamed McConnel) and Jackie Trad in South Brisbane — are fearing a Greens challenge, largely on the back of demographic change, and opposition to coalmining and ­unrestrained development.

While there is some awareness that the voting system has changed with the return to compulsory preferential voting, there may be confusion among voters and some may still “Vote 1”, meaning their votes will be informal. It took Queenslanders three elections from 1992 until they realised they did not have to allocate a preference to every candidate — there may be similar time needed for the adjustment back.

Finally, as in the 1998 election in which One Nation performed remarkably well, this time in the 60 or so seats that will see a three-way contest between Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation, the question of who manages to finish third will mostly determine the outcome of the seat. In conservative seats this will see Labor prefer­ences being crucial in determining whether the LNP or One Nation wins. And in ALP seats the issue will be whether the LNP will channel preferences to One Nation to try to unseat the Labor incumbent. If One Nation finishes third its voters will mainly shore up the conservative candidate, although there is no love for the LNP.

The slow start to this campaign, somewhat inevitably leader-­focused, has done nothing to ­galvanise the electorate or change the popular mood.

Calling an early “unpopular” election in the face of widespread voter resentment may prove to be a rash act indeed.

John Wanna is professor of politics at ANU and Griffith University.