Product denial, ruthless logic, workable policy

THIS is a policy reversal, an election year fix and a bold bid to toughen the heart of Australia's refugee determination system.

It is best branded the tactic of "product denial" and the logic is ruthless. If boatpeople are not deemed to be refugees there is no point in their boat trip.

It will surely work if enforced. This is about denying refugee status and that means abolishing the end product offered by people smugglers. John Howard used the Pacific Solution and Kevin Rudd now backs the "product denial" solution after the failure of his Indonesian solution.

Explaining his new policy Rudd was talking tough: if claims were not legitimate people would be sent home. It's an admission by the Rudd government that its policies have failed and it needs to halt the flow of boats that are now out of control.

Here is the authentic face of the Labor Party under pressure. This is the Labor Party that created the detention system in the 1990s for men, women and children. This is Rudd Labor now extending the detention period. This is Rudd Labor telling Afghans and Sri Lankans it will henceforth refuse to process their refugee claims for six and three months respectively. It even refuses to commit to lifting the suspensions after such time.

Consider the numbers: Afghans and Sri Lankans now constitute about 1500 people from the about 2000 asylum-seekers on Christmas Island. Rudd Labor is buying time with its suspensions. It assumes when processing of Afghans and Sri Lankans resumes that events in these countries will justify large scale rejection of refugee claims.

It is a tough yet justified tactic. It shatters the dual message of border vigilance and asylum-seeker humanity projected last year by Rudd.

Immigration Minister Chris Evans predicts the changed situation in future means more refugee claims "will be refused". The justification for Labor's stand is the UNHCR's review of guidelines for refugee status in both nations. Labor has flung open this slight door of opportunity.

The truth is that any Australian government has an obligation to review its guidelines to ensure that only people with a "well-founded fear of being persecuted" are given refugee status.

The policy reversal sends an epic message: Labor believes no government can tolerate unlimited boat arrivals. If these measures fail and the boat keep coming, then it must try again.

There are two uncertainties: will the changed situation in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka justify the denial of claims and for how long might Labor be prepared to extend its suspension on hearing claims?