PM’s future depends on issue that won’t go away

Malcolm Turnbull’s authority and ultimately his grip on the leadership will turn on the outcome of next Monday’s partyroom meeting, called to again resolve the Coalition’s position on gay marriage.

The Prime Minister has held firm on the election promise of a plebiscite but has already been weakened by his inability to shut down the public discussion.

And while he may be furious that this issue resurfaces every two weeks, serving to scuttle any attempt to reset an agenda aligned to national security and the economy, this failure portrays a Prime Minister without clout.

Conservative MPs believe Turnbull has so far done the right thing. Few believe the counter conspiracy that he has been encouraging the internal free-vote lobby by not reining them in.

He knows that would be political death.

What is vexing most for Turnbull is that while he may be sympathetic to the position he well knows that this is not a top order issue.

There is no subtle irony in the fact that at least one of the four protagonists, Tim Wilson, has admitted as much as well.

In a letter to his own branch members this week, he confessed that “the vast majority of people — for or against — simply don’t care, and it is a second-order issue. They just want it off the agenda and for it to be dealt with by the parliament because that is what we are elected to do”.

The reason people want it off the agenda is because every fortnight there is a co-ordinated campaign to put it back on the agenda. They use the issue to create the hysteria and then argue that they have to get it off the table because of the hysteria.

How this plays out next week is anybody’s guess. Turnbull will be reassured through a vote — it won’t be a secret ballot — on Monday in the partyroom that will undoubtedly reaffirm the party’s position and election promise of a plebiscite.

There is no reason to suggest MPs will be asked to vote on an amended position of a postal plebiscite as it would not serve the aim of bringing the dissidents to heel. The issue is whether the rebels push ahead anyway and take it to the floor of the House of Representatives where it becomes a numbers game, the outcome of which cannot be predicted.

While Bill Shorten is putting as much pressure on his MPs to support a substantive vote on the same sex marriage bill should it arise — they are all bound to support a procedural motion — there are at least half a dozen that will either abstain or vote against as they are entitled to do.

The pressure on these MPs will be significant. While they may feel bound by their conscience on the issue, they will be tempted by the prospect of destroying the Liberal Party should a yes vote prevail.

The issue then becomes how many more Liberal MPs can the four protagonists peel away from their own benches to support a yes vote, should Labor MPs split.

The potential damage to Turnbull is great. Even if it gets as far as a vote on a bill, the debate on the issue will likely immobilise the government for the entire first sitting week following the return from the winter break — and possibly the second.

And should a yes vote succeed it will then fall to the conservative bloc to determine the longevity of his leadership.