Plenty of sweat and a touch of luck

THIS is the most significant Victorian budget since the Kennett era.

It transforms the political landscape, greatly diminishes Labor’s chances of winning the November 29 election and creates a 20-year infrastructure pipeline.

There is sweat in this budget but also a measure of luck, with windfall gains in some revenue streams and some artful tweaking of the numbers to pump up the bottom line.

The real challenge for Denis Napthine is whether he has the capacity to sell the agenda to a state deeply underwhelmed with the Coalition for much of the past 3½ years.

Just over a year ago, amid the smoking ruins of Ted Baillieu’s leadership, this budget outcome seemed impossible.

Baillieu opposed the sale of the port — worth at least $5 billion — and was in the midst of a political crisis born of his own indecision.

Despite this, Baillieu and his former treasurer Kim Wells deserve some credit for having embarked on some serious cost-cutting measures.

But the real credit for this budget lies with incumbent Treasurer Michael O’Brien.

Having embraced asset sales and stared down the insecurity of minority government, he and Napthine have steered the government into a winnable position.

Napthine will be in a position to make a virtue of his budget position compared with the financial cyclone in Canberra.

Locally, Napthine will be able to compare his major projects agenda with his opponents’. Labor’s Daniel Andrews looks like a suburban mayor by comparison.

Napthine is more than six months away from going to an election and has been relentlessly behind in the published polls.

But if he can prosecute the sale of this budget to the electorate, then he will probably win.

Unless, of course, Tony Abbott’s budget will become a sink hole in the road to November 29.