NSW by-elections: lift your game or get on your bike, voters have spoken

Doing her best to look humble, but not too humble, the NSW Premier said she was “relieved” the Liberal Party had done better than she thought it would in three weekend by-elections.

“But that doesn’t diminish that we need to do better,” she added.

Indeed. The bigger relief for Gladys Berejiklian yesterday was more likely that a tough three to four weeks were over.

It was never going to be a picnic: these by-elections were Berejiklian’s first test with voters since Mike Baird decided in January that an accumulation of political problems were all too much and he’d rather not be in the hot seat.

A Newspoll for The Australian last week showed voters had warmed to the new Liberal Premier, with her 44 per cent satisfaction rating higher than Baird’s final 35 per cent.

It suggested NSW voters are willing to give Berejiklian a fair go, even if the Coalition and the Labor Party are close on a two-party-preferred vote.

Luke Foley lags as preferred premier, but he and his party could still win the next election.

One difficulty of this by-election campaign was how it proved an enormous distraction for Berejiklian. It was if everything stalled as she directed attention to two seats in the Liberal heartland on Sydney’s north side that would never go Labor’s way.

Now perhaps she can get on with governing.

The by-election results, while not quite a nightmare, do show Berejiklian’s government has its work cut out. In a volatile environment, even if voters give her a chance, she must use the next two years to stamp her authority on the government and put out the political bushfires not exactly extinguished by Baird before he bailed.

She needs to give NSW voters a clear sense of leadership and direction. She needs to commit to the completion of projects Baird said he would but ultimately didn’t.

Swings of 10 per cent in by-elections are not uncommon, as analyst Antony Green says. On primary votes, swings against Berejiklian’s government were much higher. Preference votes in Manly and North Shore made those results look respectable.

The new-chum Liberal candidates in those seats had flaws: one battled accusations of being a director of a company that traded while insolvent, the other seemed to have difficulties with fudging her residential history and even her LinkedIn profile. The sudden mid-term departures of local heroes Baird and former health minister Jillian Skinner did not help.

But no gloss from Berejiklian can hide electoral maths: her government will be out the door in 2019 unless she lifts its game.