Newspoll: One Nation a major headache for Labor and LNP

This Queensland election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests for decades.

The electoral map has been dramatically redrawn, after the most significant redistribution in more than 30 years boosted the number of electorates in Queensland’s unicameral parliament from 89 to 93 seats.

As well as the new seats, sitting MPs in a handful of existing seats have had their boundaries changed so their electorates now notionally belong to the other side of politics.

And for the first time since 1989, a Queensland election will be fought with compulsory preferential voting, meaning voters must number every square on their ballot papers. Now, the flow of preferences is crucial.

But the real wildcard is the reincarnation of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in her home state, and where that protest party’s preferences will end up. Labor has committed to putting One Nation last on its how-to-vote cards, the LNP is remaining coy, and Hanson has threatened a default position of ­directing preferences away from all sitting MPs.

While the latter two attitudes will likely change as the election nears, Labor’s stance perversely could see LNP MPs hold their seats against a One Nation surge.

Today’s Newspoll has returned a two-party-preferred statewide result of 52-48 per cent in Labor’s favour. But at the election, results will vary wildly. One Nation’s support is patchy. Its 16 per cent primary vote hides the fact it will poll strongly in some regional electorates, but garner little support in inner-city Brisbane.

The battleground will be seats in jobs-starved regions and in the outskirts of Brisbane.