MH370: Malaysian report goes off course

An underwater vehicle used in the search for MH370.

It is more than four years since Malaysia Airlines flight 370 departed Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing. Since its disappearance there has been any amount of conjecture as to what happened to MH370, why it happened and where it is.

On Monday, the Malaysian government released a safety investigation report into the MH370 mystery. The report summarises details of the aircraft systems, crew training and known events, and records gleaned from radar and satellite.

This process is necessary to eliminate or identify events or actions that may have contributed to the disappearance. The report’s conclusion just about eliminates any aircraft malfunction or the cargo as a likely cause of any accident. It follows that the cockpit events need further scrutiny. It is known that one minute and six seconds after captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s final radio transmission, when all seemed to be well, the first transponder signal disappeared, closely followed by the second.

The report summary says: “The possibility of intervention by a third party cannot be excluded either.” This would have been highly unlikely, as someone can enter the cockpit only if the captain unlocks the door. Furthermore, the aircraft is fitted with a flight deck video surveillance system, which gives the captain a view of the area around the door and galley, so it is extremely doubtful a “third party” would be given access.

Soon after the captain’s radio transmission, the aircraft turned 180 degrees towards Penang Island. The turn was very tight and beyond the autopilot’s capability: it could have been achieved only manually. It is worth noting that the “over bank” and “stall warning” systems would have been activated in this turn.

On roll out, the aircraft was placed on a track towards Penang Island. After completing a lazy turn (five to 10 degrees of bank) just to the south of Penang, the passenger jet was then flown to a number of waypoints before heading in a southerly direction over the Indian Ocean. All of this could have been achieved only by a pilot who was familiar with the aircraft and its systems.

What is remarkable, and to my mind significant, is that Zaharie had created “a flight path from Kuala Lumpur International Airport to an area south of the Indian Ocean through the Andaman Sea” on his home flight simulator.

However, the Royal Malaysia Police’s forensic report “concluded that there were no unusual activities other than game-related flight simulations”. To me this statement beggars belief.

The Malaysian government and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau have persisted with the stance that it was a “ghost flight” and the aircraft eventually ran out of fuel and entered a steep dive, resulting in its destruction. There is ample evidence to demonstrate that this may not be the case. Aircraft parts that have been recovered do not suggest a high-impact crash — indeed it is highly probable that the aircraft was ditched in controlled flight with the flaps fully down.

It is interesting that the report contains the comment that the right outboard flap was “most likely” to be in the retracted position. I have read Larry Vance’s book MH370: Mystery Solved and also have spoken to him on several occasions. He is a skilled and experienced aircraft accident investigator, and he has come to the conclusion that the “witness marks” and damage to the flaperon and outboard flap could have been caused only if the flaps were down. I consider his findings compelling.

My belief is that the circumstantial evidence and the objective analysis of the damage point to a controlled ditching by an experienced pilot. It is therefore puzzling that Malaysia’s investigation into MH370’s disappearance has not addressed this possibility.

Mike Keane is a former fighter pilot and former chief pilot of easyJet, Britain’s biggest carrier.