Labor's fall from grace

THE party must ask why one in five of its supporters has defected in three years.

THIS year affirms a structural change in Australian politics as Labor's primary vote has fallen and flattened at 34-35 per cent with the party more hostage than ever to the Greens to stay in office.

The pivotal question for Julia Gillard is whether she can revive Labor's primary vote and its political authority, or whether she entrenches a diminished model of Labor governance in power sharing with the Greens. Amid the furious contradictions of pundits, this is the key to Gillard's future.

The extent and rapidity of Labor's core vote decline is stark. At the 2007 election Kevin Rudd won 43.4 per cent of the primary vote. At this year's election under Gillard this fell to 38 per cent. Newspoll shows the average Labor primary vote during the past four months at 34.3 per cent. Welcome to the new paradigm.

This fall in an exact three-year period is 9.1 points, a defection of one in five voters. It has damaged Labor's brand on a scale never considered possible at the time of Rudd's stunning victory over John Howard. This is accentuated by Labor's attrition in state politics where it has lost office in Victoria, remains unpopular in Queensland, and in NSW, with 24 per cent of the primary vote, faces a wipeout of unprecedented dimensions next March. Beneath these figures are powerful changes in Labor culture and structure.

First, since its return to office in 2007 Labor has failed to project as a party of convincing beliefs. Second, the institutional bedrock of the party during the Hawke-Keating era, the NSW Right, imploded over the electricity privatisation issue when the party declared war on its own state government. Third, the party remains chained at an organisational level to trade unions increasingly resistant to the demands of a market-based economy, a crippling defect. Fourth, the party's left voting constituency of young voters, teachers, academics, gays, culture industry and inner-city professionals is defecting to the Greens. Fifth, Labor is in trouble in the development states of the resources boom, Western Australia and Queensland, with its primary vote during the past three months at 30 points and 34 points respectively. And sixth, in the suburbs and the regions, Labor is vulnerable to "Howard battler syndrome", with workers sceptical that the party serves their needs and aspirations.

Overall, it is a swirling, confused and unpredictable cocktail.

Newspoll chief Martin O'Shannessy sounds a warning. "Labor's primary vote is now running about four points lower than it was at the election. If we look at Victoria and South Australia, the states that polled so well for Gillard at the election, the post-election fall has been about five points."

The alarm for Gillard is that minority government may become a dead political weight for Labor at the polls. How does minority government play out? How do the voters see it?

Consultation and negotiation are fine. But the public has a refined nose for weak government and will not tolerate it. The jury remains out and Gillard knows the problem: any sign that Gillard Labor is a weak government, unable to deliver and hostage to rural independents and the Greens, will be lethal. Gillard obtained no post-election honeymoon whatsoever.

Yet there was a honeymoon effect. As Newspoll shows, it went to the Greens and "others". The Green vote lifted from 11.8 per cent at the election to 14 per cent in the past several months and the "others" increase has been stronger.

This reflects disaffection with the main parties, an ongoing theme from this year's election.

Some pundits predict the Green surge is over. They may be correct. But this cannot gainsay the leap in the Green vote to a level that transcends other tribal parties of the post-war era, the Democratic Labor Party and One Nation. The Greens are different from these parties and their effect will be more enduring.

The DLP was a gift for the Coalition: it stole primary voters from Labor and preferenced the Coalition. One Nation was a minor net gain to Labor: it stole more primary votes from the Coalition than it returned in preferences.

The Greens, however, attack the Labor primary vote, weakening its base, and by preferencing Labor at almost 80 per cent achieve a leverage over Labor by making its incumbency hostage to Green support. The more Labor's primary vote falls, the more Labor is dependent on the Greens. It is an iron law of politics.

Newspolls since the election prove that Australia remains an evenly divided nation. The split between the Gillard-led centre-left forces and the Tony Abbott-led centre-right forces remains the same with a 50-50 two-party-preferred vote. It is a remarkable and unusual outcome giving heart to both sides.

The post-election fall in Labor's primary vote has gone to Greens and "others", not the Coalition. The good news for Abbott is that he still sits on half the vote. His failure to form a government has triggered neither a slide in Coalition support nor reopened internal Liberal Party divisions. The question is whether he can convert ongoing disillusion with Labor into a higher primary vote or whether he has hit a ceiling.

O'Shannessy says: "Abbott is not facing the strongest government in the world. But, since the election, he hasn't been able to win people from the other side."

The test is whether Abbott can convert those voters who have left Labor to shift from uncommitted to the Coalition. From December last year Abbott's genius was missed by the pundits. This was his ability to ignite the conservative base. Now he needs to pass another test. Beyond the conservative base, he must persuade another batch of voters to shift from left to right.

Abbott's tactics are correct. He wants to ensure that a troubled Labor government remains the issue. Demands from the media that he produce a new policy framework six months from the last election are utter nonsense written by the ALP. He won't be mug enough to fall for this.

Down the track, however, Abbott needs to ensure his appeal to the mainstream vote. Women remain a problem for him. Newspoll shows a distinct bias by women against the Abbott-led Coalition that needs to be confronted.

In the Labor-Green contest on the left of politics the climate change issue will be decisive. If Gillard can legislate a carbon price next year then Labor will regain its environmental credentials. The conundrum, however, is that she needs Green votes to achieve this.

There is one certainty: Labor will sink or swim with Gillard. There is no alternative leader. The caucus knows this. Given the Rudd experience, assassination of another leader would be an act of political suicide. One of Gillard's great qualities is her courage and tenacity. It is Labor's best hope.