Kim Jong-un nuclear backflip sounds good but has he really changed?

Kim Jong-un with the South Korean delegation. Picture: AFP.

Donald Trump is right to sound a very cautious note in welcoming the reported backflip by North Korea on its willingness to hold talks with the US, cease nuclear and missile testing and put its arsenal up for discussion.

Such a turnaround by dictator Kim Jong-un would be so profound that it naturally invites scepticism, given Pyongyang’s long history of making unfounded claims and promises.

Mr Trump’s response today was that — at face value — North Korea ‘seems to be acting positively’ after claims by South Korea that the North is now open to a “candid dialogue” with the US to discuss denuclearisation and establish diplomatic relations.

“Effort is being made by all parties concerned,” Mr Trump tweeted. “The world is watching and waiting. May be false hope but the US is ready to go hard in either direction.”

Possible progress being made in talks with North Korea. For the first time in many years, a serious effort is being made by all parties concerned. The World is watching and waiting! May be false hope, but the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 6, 2018

South Korea has reported North Korea’s change of attitude after meetings with the South Korean envoys this week. But there has so far been no clear confirmation from the North about exactly what it is proposing and under what conditions.

Kim Jong Un (R) shakes hands with South Korean chief envoy Chung Eui-yong (L). Picture: AFP.

Self-preservation would be the only conceivable motivation for Mr Kim to genuinely open the door to US talks and the possibility of halting and then eliminating his nuclear program.

He would be seeking assurances of survival for himself and his regime while reaping the economic benefits that would finally flow after years of increasingly tougher sanctions.

But for Mr Kim to do such a backflip after years of demonising the US and bragging about his country’s burgeoning nuclear capabilities would go against years of propaganda. It would be hard to explain to his own people and could open him up to potential danger at home, including a coup.

In Washington there is understandably extreme scepticism about the regime’s reported shift.

“We have seen nothing to indicate ... that he would be willing to give up those weapons,” Dan Coats, the director of U.S. national intelligence, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing today.

The fact is that Mr Trump and his generals probably have no great insight into the claims that North Korea has suddenly changed its stripes.

If there is a genuine change in Pyongyang, the White House will claim some credit given the Trump administration’s role in pushing US to win UN approval for the toughest raft of sanctions ever placed on Pyongyang.

But unless and until they hear directly from Pyongyang about what it is willing to offer and in what circumstances, then very little has changed.

As Mr Trump said: “(It) “would be a great thing for the world (But) we’re going to see.”

Cameron Stewart is also US Contributor for Sky News Australia