How Malcolm Turnbull turned beat-up into a damaging narrative

Malcolm Turnbull had nothing to lose by taking on Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones.

WHEN John Howard quietly ­intervened to convince Malcolm Turnbull to stay on in parliament after his leadership ambitions had spectacularly blown up, not everyone was persuaded he was staying to assume the role of one of Tony Abbott’s loyal foot soldiers.

But despite the strong feeling in the Liberal partyroom that Turnbull would never be satisfied sitting in an Abbott cabinet without coveting the role of leader, the charismatic millionaire shocked many when he got on with the job of communications spokesman and began demolishing Labor’s National Broadband Network. He did such a good job that ­Abbott even lauded him for practically inventing the internet.

In truth, Turnbull’s leadership ambitions have never evaporated and anybody who understands the basic psychology of a politician who has desperately wanted the prime ministership knows that extinguishing their leadership dreams is impossible.

Instead of giving up, Turnbull became realistic.

Sources tell Inquirer that internally Turnbull’s antics are not seen as a direct attempt to challenge the Prime Minister but, rather, to make it clear that he is no one’s man, that he will not be ­bullied by columnists and shock jocks who believe he is too wet, and that he is the natural successor to Abbott.

While Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison are known to have longer-term leadership ambitions, Turnbull is sending signals that he is going nowhere and still has what it takes.

AS Turnbull watched the Rudd-Gillard car crash and the growing strength of Abbott, he became increasingly convinced that Abbott would win last year’s election and as a consequence his hopes of taking the job had become much diminished. But over past weeks something has changed. As the government’s public standing has collapsed after a deeply unpopular budget, some Liberals have told Inquirer that Turnbull has a “spring” in his step which is messing with the minds of the cabinet, and no doubt the Prime Minister.

This week Turnbull decided to ignore conventional political rules and take on two of the most powerful media players — Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones — to declare he was not after Abbott’s job. In fairness, he was baited by both; they have accused him of freelancing by meeting spontaneously with Clive Palmer and not defending the budget enough. But Turnbull’s ­reaction was thermonuclear and stunned many internally.

Turnbull had nothing to lose by taking on Bolt and Jones. The columnists have always regarded him as too soft and a fake Liberal who would be better suited to the Labor side. If Turnbull is to ever rise again he will never have their support; it is through this prism his decision to stand up to them should be viewed. The message is one of strength: Turnbull has emerged as the most formidable cabinet member, one who will not cower before the powerful media.

But his apoplectic reaction has divided Liberals. Some senior ministers strongly believe he was pushed too far and did the right thing defending himself against the “bullying” of powerful players.

One tells Inquirer that while Bolt has been a good friend of the government, he has done Abbott a disservice by bringing the issue to a head: “Bolt has gone too far and it’s not helping Tony.” By the end of this week Turnbull had embarked on a full-blown media blitz that has turned what was largely a beat-up into a story that is damaging the government.

One thing in politics is universally true: disunity is death.

TURNBULL is no fool. With one of the fiercest intellects in parliament, he knows every variation of an answer about his leadership ambitions will be interpreted as undermining the Prime Minister. And yet on Thursday night he went on ABC1’s 7.30 after sparring with Jones, to confirm that he had some lingering ambitions. He even reminded viewers that politics is an unpredictable game.

Turnbull deliberately chose not to rule out an ambition to lead the party again, despite ­describing his chances of getting Abbott’s job as “somewhere ­between nil and very negligible’’.

After clashing with Sydney radio personality Jones — saying he and News Corp Australia columnist Bolt were “bomb-throwers’’ doing Labor’s work by suggesting division in the government’s ranks (it was Jones who put the term to him first), the Communications Minister said the Liberal Party was united and he was behind the Prime Minister.

“I don’t have any plans, any desires, any expectations to be the leader, and that’s true,’’ Turnbull told 7.30.

“Having said that, I’m going to be very honest with you here; politics is an unpredictable business. People say to me often, ‘Do you think you will be leader again?’ and I say my prospects are somewhere between nil and very negligible, and I think that is about right.

“I don’t think there is any member of the House of Representatives who, if in the right circumstances, would not take on that responsibility. But I am very, very happy doing what I’m doing. I have a really exciting job, being the Communications Minister.’’

Liberal MPs are now deeply concerned that Turnbull’s smack down of Bolt and Jones is distracting from the budget sales job and want the issue dead, buried and cremated before it gains mainstream traction.

Turnbull’s clash with Jones came three days after he described as “demented’’, “unhinged’’ and “crazy’’ claims by Bolt last weekend that Turnbull was positioning himself for some kind of threat or challenge to Abbott. The claims were sparked by a dinner Turnbull had with Clive Palmer last week and his attendance at the launch of a Parliamentary Friends of the ABC group.

Senior Liberals have told Inquirer that Turnbull’s appearance on Jones’s show and his attack on Bolt were “Malcolm being Malcolm’’.

But a source close to the Prime Minister puts it differently. The source describes Turnbull as a man who can “not help himself” at moments like these and who is regarded with suspicion by the bulk of the partyroom.

While most believe Turnbull is not directly attempting to destabilise the Prime Minister, some are now angry that he has chosen to make the week all about him at a time when the government desperately needs to get on the front foot.

So what is he playing at? Is Malcolm just being Malcolm?

One senior Liberal says the entire leadership conversation has snowballed out of control — and Turnbull has added petrol to the fire. His analysis is that Turnbull is actively positioning to be the “break glass” option, the one the party turns to when it is desperate and still languishing in the polls closer to an election. It is similar to the Kevin Rudd model — when your partyroom dislikes you but can’t live without you.

Another senior Coalition MP says there is widespread sympathy for Turnbull who has been treated badly by Bolt, but that sympathy has diminished since the 7.30 interview. “He should have gone on and killed it but he didn’t.”

So what are Turnbull’s chances in his own partyroom? Jones came close to explaining Turnbull’s real chance when he aggressively told Turnbull he had no hope of challenging “precisely because you have no hope every of being the leader. You’ve got to get that into your head. No hope ever. But because of that you’re happy to throw a few bombs around that might blow up Abbott a bit.”

While Labor is salivating over the first hint of leadership talk since Abbott won the landslide election, one thing is clear — the overwhelming majority of the Liberal partyroom won’t wear Turnbull. Turnbull knows this too. Since Turnbull lost the liberal leadership to Abbott famously by only one vote, the partyroom has changed radically. It has moved to the Right — away from Turnbull — and new MPs are firmly behind Abbott. Even the MPs who previously supported Turnbull now are closely aligned with the PM. One senior source close to Abbott says Turnbull has always been the more popular of the two — but that didn’t stop Abbott from winning by a landslide. “We know he is popular, but Tony won the last election and he was never the most popular candidate. The popularity argument hasn’t changed over the last three years, yet Abbott still won a landslide on his (low) ratings.”

Turnbull’s leadership was a politically tumultuous and a difficult time for the Coalition. Many can’t forget it. He was weakened after he lost the party’s confidence on his push for an emissions trading scheme and was badly damaged after he pressured an adviser to Rudd over the Godwin Grech emails, later found to be bogus.

Abbott has now been forced into using the prime ministerial formula for dealing with recalcitrant MPs talking up their rights to be “ambitious”.

Abbott has also rejected Turnbull’s suggestion of a co-ordinated campaign against him by declaring that criticism “goes with the territory” in public life, avoiding any rebuke for his minister’s powerful media enemies.

It comes after Turnbull used 7.30 to suggest the Bolt and Jones attacks may have been co-ordinated, although he would not name who had been behind the attacks. Abbott says people, including Bolt and Jones, will “make mischief” occasionally but that he believes the Communications Minister to be loyal to him.

Abbott used a press conference in Paris to make his first public response to Turnbull’s admission of existing leadership dreams, to argue he fully backed Turnbull as a member of his cabinet and rejected criticism that he is undermining the government and his leadership.

“There’s nothing wrong with being ambitious,” he says.

The idea that Turnbull is ready to strike is laughable.

Malcolm is certainly, as all of his colleagues keep repeating, just being Malcolm. But with the government struggling to execute its agenda and budget, a week like this is the last thing it needed. Both Turnbull and Abbott know it.

Turnbull might be better off spending the next few weeks sticking squarely to his NBN brief and not pontificating about shock jocks and ambition.