Support shored up for week of pain

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Labor will wreak havoc.

The Coalition has shored up its support in federal parliament to fight any Labor moves to bring down the government during a crucial period when it will lack a key vote in the lower house.

Amid talk of a no-confidence motion that could drive Malcolm Turnbull out of the Prime ­Minister’s office, the government is confident it has enough support from crossbench MPs to see off the threat.

The government will have only 75 votes out of 149 members of the House of Representatives while Barnaby Joyce fights a by-election, but this is enough to ensure a slim majority or a tied vote on key decisions. Labor has 69 votes in the House and can ­attempt to win five crossbenchers to its cause, but the resulting 74 votes are unlikely to be enough to pass a no-confidence motion.

With Joyce leading in the polls in New England and not facing any clear challenger at this stage, the decision to hold a by-election on December 2 means the government may be exposed in the House of Representatives only during the four sitting days from November 27 to 30. If Joyce wins, he can return to parliament on December 4 for the last sitting week.

The Coalition has had 76 votes in the lower house during this term but one of its members, Tony Smith, presides as Speaker. That means the Coalition could have only 74 votes on the floor of the lower house during Joyce’s ­absence, setting up a tie with Labor even if Bill Shorten managed to convince every crossbencher to bring down the government.

The Speaker has a casting vote in the event of a tie, but Smith has indicated he will use this to give the government a majority on legislation or matters of confidence. “If in the final vote there is not a majority, you don’t vote to give it one,” he said in May.

Even so, a no-confidence ­motion would fail in a tie.

The government has also made sure it has enough support on the crossbench to counter these tactics. Turnbull spoke to Victorian independent Cathy McGowan on Thursday. She has consistently said she will support the government on confidence and supply. Turnbull also spoke on Thursday to Nick Xenophon, whose party colleague Rebekha Sharkie is another of the five lower-house crossbenchers.

McGowan and Sharkie voted with the Coalition on Thursday to defeat a Labor motion calling for Employment Minister Michaelia Cash to be sacked. Neither has signalled concerns about the government’s ability to continue governing. Two of the remaining crossbenchers, Greens MP Adam Bandt and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, voted with Labor on the key motion on Thursday. The fifth, Queenslander Bob Katter, was absent.

Labor may not bring down the government but it can wreak havoc with the Coalition’s management of the parliament. A ­motion to launch a royal commission into the banks, for instance, could secure enough support on the crossbench to test government MPs to cross the floor. This will be a challenge for Liberal National Party backbencher George Christensen, who has called publicly for a royal commission and may get a chance to vote for one.

The most likely danger for the government is being caught out on process votes that test the numbers on the floor but do not change legislation.