Coalition turmoil: pressure is on Turnbull as cabinet nightmare begins

Malcolm Turnbull’s mathematical nightmare is not confined to the floor of parliament.

If and when Barnaby Joyce is returned to the government benches, the Prime Minister will have to deal with the next arithmetical problem: cabinet.

Liberal conservative forces argue that the Nationals should do the right thing and cede Fiona Nash’s Senate spot to the next in line on the basis of a casual vacancy — a Liberal. The obvious argument then follows that the Nationals lose a spot in cabinet.

This becomes a compelling argument considering the Nationals created this problem for the government in the first place. And senior Nats are already conceding that the mysterious algorithm that determines the party split may not save them.

Turnbull is already likely to face pressure to address what conservatives claims is a factional imbalance in cabinet that swings in favour of the moderates.

Then there is the Senate/house split in cabinet, which is arguably over-represented by senators.

Proportional state-based claims will also have to be considered. Even more diabolic is the gender gap. Turnbull cannot afford to lose a female minister from an already male-dominated fiefdom.

The problem is that, aside from the expected retirement of Attorney-General George Brandis to the high commission in London, there are few cabinet posts anyone can name that could be taken out with any political justification.

The list of demands by conservatives is long. Victorians will argue Dan Tehan and Alan Tudge should go up. Justice Minister Michael Keenan is still on the waiting list. It would also be a courageous act to deny the ambitions of NSW conservative Angus Taylor.

The government may well survive the structural problems of governing presented by Joyce’s folly. But Turnbull’s political survival will ultimately be determined by how he deals with crunching the numbers within his own ranks.