Andrews fails to capitalise, besieged Napthine holds edge

ON May 6 the Napthine government handed down one of the strongest budgets in Victoria’s modern history, throwing $27 billion in state-building infrastructure at voters.

Today the Coalition’s combined primary vote is nearly eight points below the November 27, 2010, election result.

While sentiment has moved only slightly over the Newspoll survey, voter support is now at levels that would guarantee an election loss.

Those close to Premier Denis Napthine have been quick to blame the Abbott government’s spending cuts for the dead-cat bounce in Victorian Coalition sentiment since the state budget.

There is no doubt the Abbott budget feeds into the narrative. But, more broadly, the government must acknowledge the ­effect of relentless disunity and crises that have gripped the ­administration since March last year.

The controversy over rebel ­independent Geoff Shaw has hurt the government, just as the latest tapes scandal will feed through to the next Newspoll survey. The perception is of a government ­relentlessly in strife.

Combine this with cost-of-­living angst and anger with Canberra and the dark clouds of a perfect political storm are gathering over Napthine.

But what of Daniel Andrews?

Like Napthine, more people are dissatisfied with his leadership. He trails Napthine in the better premier stakes and Labor’s primary vote is little changed from 2010.

The Greens continue to profit from pre-election voter support, which is nearly five points above the last election.

The combined Greens/independents/others primary vote is a hefty 25 per cent, suggesting the game is far from over.

Yet, with an election to be held on November 29, Labor remains the frontrunner to win office in one term for the first time since the middle of last century.

If the numbers weren’t so consistent, it would be hard to believe.