Alarm bells for Joyce as Nationals losing the bush

Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals should put their party on high alert over the swing against the government in regional Australia. Picture: The Australian

Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals should put their party on high alert over the swing against the government in regional Australia.

The Nationals leader may have to pass his Akubra to Bill Shorten now that Labor wears the crown for the strongest primary vote outside the big capital cities.

The balance tipped in Labor’s favour over the three months to the end of September when Shorten and his party increased their core support outside the capital cities from 34 to 36 per cent. This was outside the margin of error of one percentage point.

This part of the electorate, known as “non-capital cities” in Newspoll, becomes the latest group to score an “imperfect 10” for the government.

There are now four categories where the Coalition has a primary vote about 10 percentage points below its result at the July 2016 election: Queensland, Western Australia, the over-50s age group and now regional Australia.

The backlash from older Australians has been clear since the first quarterly Newspolls after last year’s July 2 election, with Malcolm Turnbull paying the price for unpopular policies such as pension and super changes.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has had a big impact in this age group, but that does not explain the full shift. Australians aged between 35 and 49 have also shifted to One Nation without the same devastating impact on the Coalition. The difference in the over-50 age group is that Labor also has poached voters. Turnbull fights on two fronts to retain a cohort that is usually receptive to the Coalition’s message.

One Nation also has vaulted ahead in the regions since the election but Labor has also made big gains, increasing its primary vote more than five points.

The danger is clear for Joyce and his team. As the Deputy Prime Minister prepares for High Court hearings this week over his citizenship and his right to stay in parliament, he will not be comforted by the fact One Nation has 9 per cent of the primary vote in NSW.

One Nation will be a potent and unpredictable force if Joyce has to fight a by-election in New England.