Newspoll: It’s as good as it gets for Anthony Albanese and Federal Labor months out from election

Labor leader Anthony Albanese will be well pleased by the latest Newspoll. Picture: Chris Kidd

This is about as good as it gets for Anthony Albanese and federal Labor.

A primary vote of 41 per cent and a leader with net positive approval (albeit just) represents a high-water mark for the opposition.

The Coalition, by contrast, is at a low point, holding on to its core support at 35 per cent, with a Prime Minister whose personal approval is deep into negative territory.

History, in this context, is both a friend and foe to Morrison.

There hasn’t been an election that produced a two-party-preferred margin of the size represented in Newspoll since 1975, although 1977 came close.

Both were Coalition victories.

The highest winning two-party-preferred result Labor has produced was Bob Hawke’s victory of 1983 – 53.23 per cent.

History suggests that the contest will narrow the closer we get to the May election.

The question is by how much, and how quickly.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Getty Images

This is where history doesn’t favour Morrison. Parties generally don’t go on to win elections from positions this far behind and this close to the only poll that matters.

The Coalition has banked modest gains in the latest Newspoll with a lift in the Liberal/Nationals primary vote and an improvement in Morrison’s approval ratings.

The Coalition can take some comfort from the arrows starting to point in the right direction.

But from where it now stands, it remains a long road back.

The Russian war on Ukraine has presented a double-edged sword for Morrison.

There has been a lift in support for him personally, as he seeks to project the image of statesman during a time of global crisis, but he can’t do that and attack Albanese for being weak on defence and national security at the same time.

And while national security can work for the Coalition, at some point it will have to pivot back on to the economy and cost of living.

The latest Newspoll shows that voters may already be starting to sharpen their focus.

Labor strategists have made a concerted effort over the past week to start softening Albanese’s image, which may help explain why his approval ratings have gone up, noting that they still remain relatively low at 44 per cent – with dissatisfaction at 43 per cent.

The challenge for Albanese will be to ensure that the 13 per cent of voters still undecided about him do not shift to the disapproval side of the ledger as the election draws nearer and he is forced further out of the shadows of his small-target strategy.