NATO summit will expose PM’s pitiful Ukraine support package

Volodymyr Zelenskyy greets Anthony Albanese ahead of their meeting in Kyiv.

The Wagner Group revolt in Russia proves one thing: now it’s Vladimir Putin fighting for regime survival.

In the first 12 months of the war, Ukraine was fighting for its existence but it held on. That astonishing fighting spirit, Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership, and Western weapons and intelligence were central to resisting the Russians.

Putin has been defeated in every war aim. Ukraine will now never come back under Russian control. NATO has been strengthened and enlarged. Russia’s military resurgence has been exposed as a hoax. The foundation of Putin’s rule as a corrupt war lord propped up by criminal gangs has been exposed to the Russian people. All this in just 16 months since the February 2022 invasion.

Putin’s strategic leadership has been stunningly incompetent. He weakened his own military forces by being too slow to conscript a mass army. He could not get his generals to operate as a modern joint force. Intelligence reporting on Ukraine’s supposed weakness was wholly inaccurate; a fawning sham to appease an out-of-touch dictator.

Putin handed too much power to an even more ruthless criminal in Yevgeny Prigozhin and tolerated the thug’s online rants against his own generals.

There are two immediate threats to Putin’s leadership. The first, now unfolding, comes from Russia’s ultranationalist fascist right: Prigozhin is just the most prominent example. There are others in military and intelligence positions, now calculating their chances for a coup. In an effort to hang on to power Putin will crack down even harder inside Russia. Expect a Stalin-like purge of senior military and intelligence positions. This is the start of regime change Russian-style.

Possessing nuclear weapons didn’t save the Soviet Union. They won’t save Putin either. Further bluffing about nuclear use might well give his generals another reason to take over.

Vladimir Putin (R) and Sergei Shoigu (L)

The second threat to Putin is the Russian people. Note how the Wagner mercenaries were treated as heroes pulling out of Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin’s frequent online condemnation of the war and criticism of Moscow’s military leadership will have been widely seen. It may be one thing for Russians to support Putin’s nationalist propaganda, but few will want to sacrifice their own lives in a war that is already lost.

If it is true the Wagner mercenaries are to be disbanded, Putin has lost a brutal but effective military unit. The Russian military will be left fighting a bloody rearguard action with reluctant, badly trained conscripts against motivated Ukrainian forces who have had the momentum for months.

This development changes everything. Ukraine has a chance over the European summer and autumn to decisively win back territory and force Russia to the negotiation table on Kyiv’s terms.

As the Russian ship sinks, so the rats begin to leave.

Beijing’s ambassador to the European Union, Fu Cong, was asked by Al Jazeera last week what his attitude was to Kyiv’s aim to reclaim areas occupied by Russia. “I don’t see why not. We respect the territorial integrity of all countries. So when China established relations with the former Soviet Union, that’s what we agreed.”

We now know the limits of Xi Jinping’s “no-limits” partnership with Putin.

The NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 – which Anthony Albanese will attend as an “Asia-Pacific partner” – will be a crucial moment to help Ukraine push for a decisive military advantage.

Albanese’s recent announcement of a supposed $110m package of military support is a deeply pathetic response. The core of the package is 70 vehicles including M113 armoured personal carriers that, while updated, are Vietnam War vintage, and other redundant army kit.

Australia bypassed the opportunity to give Ukraine what it has asked for, which is modern and export-ready Bushmaster and Hawkei vehicles.

When pressed by journalists on this, Albanese said: “What we have done is asked the ADF what is the best way we can provide support in the immediate sense that is available to us, that has been the basis.”

Local residents walk among debris following a Russian missile strike in the centre of Kramatorsk.

Note that Defence was told to absorb any cost. At a pivotal moment in global security, Defence is protecting its budget priorities – it is not thinking about Australia’s strategic interests – and the government is hiding behind that old canard: “military advice”.

When the Morrison government wanted to provide military support to Ukraine, I understand the official advice was that we had nothing suitable to send. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton had to press hard to deliver the Bushmaster commitment.

Strategic leadership comes from the top. Unless Albanese wants to be regarded as an unserious bit-player in Vilnius, he needs to assert some authority and come up with a new military assistance package for Ukraine.

Albanese started his administration with a clear commitment to Ukraine and, seemingly, to national security. Now the only thing more apparent than the loss of defence planning direction is the loss of strategic nerve.