Maintain an air of caution over US balloon claims

The US Navy recovers the Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. Picture: US Navy / AFP

Whether the Chinese balloon that crossed the US was a spy balloon is a matter of debate given the potential for balloons to be equipped with sensors or other surveillance technology. However, there is a lack of concrete evidence to support the US claim.

Some have suggested the US claim was politically motivated to stir up anti-China sentiment or justify increased military spending. Critics of the US claim the balloon was more likely to be an ordinary weather or scientific research balloon, and the US government was using the claim as a pretext to further its own political or military agenda.

It should be noted China has spy satellites as part of its space program. They are used for a variety of purposes, including intelligence gathering, surveillance, and remote sensing. If China wanted to spy on the US, it would be far more likely to use satellites than a very large, in-your-face white balloon.

Targeting the balloon’s payload with an AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missile and bringing down it and its payload over the sea will make it much more difficult to prove or disprove the US claim. It could have been brought down just as easily over an unpopulated land area, allowing for full recovery of the payload.

I recall from my Defence days that in 1981 the US claimed Vietnam was using T-2 mycotoxin against local Indochina populations based on the existence of “yellow rain” and people dying from mycotoxins. The yellow rain proved to be naturally occurring bee pollen. People were certainly dying from ingested mycotoxins, but they had developed naturally on buried rice. Before that became known, Australia was heavily criticised by the US for not publicly supporting its claim Vietnam was using chemical weapons supplied by the Soviet Union.

It would be prudent for Australia to remain neutral over the balloon issue, at least for the time being.

Clive Williams is a visiting fellow at the ANU’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre