LNP failing to get traction despite Palaszczuk woes

“How good is Queensland” was Scott Morrison’s euphoric election-night declaration last May. The Sunshine State not only retained all its LNP seats but won two from Labor to cement the Coalition’s “miracle” victory.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the ALP in Queensland since then as the Palaszczuk Labor government has been kneecapped by separate scandals involving the Deputy Premier and leader of the dominant Left faction Jackie Trad, and Palaszczuk’s chief of staff David Barbagallo, who has now quit.

So there were strong expectations an opinion poll could see a seismic shift in the political fortunes of the LNP opposition led by Deb Frecklington. But with just 14 months until the state election in October next year, the Courier-Mail/YouGov poll a week ago was privately met with only muted enthusiasm by many in the LNP senior ranks, despite showing the party leading for the first time since May 2016 with 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.

Voter satisfaction for Annastacia Palaszczuk had collapsed to just 34 per cent. A Teflon leader who weathered other scandals over the past five years without damage, this collapse was a significant win for Frecklington and her team and something her predecessor Tim Nicholls failed to achieve. Frecklington also narrowly outperformed Nicholls in the satisfaction rating, but stood at only 30 per cent — still below Palaszsczuk.

Of concern to hardheads in the LNP was their enduringly low primary vote — just 37 per cent — and clear evidence that Queenslanders were parking their votes as uncommitted rather than completely repudiating Labor and embracing the opposition.

While the LNP primary vote was slightly up from what it secured at the November 2017 state election, there is suspicion that increase may be driven by stronger support in regional areas such as central and north Queensland. This is similar to what was achieved by Morrison. They fear the seat-rich greater Brisbane area, vital for the LNP to win government, has not yet been won over.

A record Greens vote of 13 per cent, likely to be centred on Brisbane, also bodes poorly for the LNP with most of it destined to return to Labor under compulsory preferential voting.

That as many as 40 per cent of voters are unsure about Frecklington demonstrates the task ahead for the LNP over the next 14 months.

Before the recent poll there were low rumblings about Frecklington’s performance. Despite being an enthusiastic, energetic leader who has grown in the role, there were suspicions she was not cutting through in the city even with help from Labor’s midterm horror stories.

Apart from the 2012 landslide victory engineered by a popular former Brisbane lord mayor in Campbell Newman, the Liberal National Party has continued to struggle to overcome the perception among urban voters that it remains a party, at a state level at least, that is not only dominated and devoted to — but often dictated by — rural and regional Queensland. The challenge for Frecklington — whose electorate is centred on Kingaroy, a town indelibly linked to former premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen — is to straddle the country-city fault line that is at the heart of the merged party.

The most recent polling has not diminished those concerns that Frecklington may not be able to successfully prosecute the argument for a change of government in traditional Liberal heartland.

But it has ensured her leadership is safe. A narrow lead is still a lead and will keep any possible challengers at bay.

However, the LNP cannot just rely on the scandals bedevilling Labor.

Palaszczuk is now vulnerable but the Queensland ALP has repeatedly demonstrated a capacity to recover from far worse.

Frecklington must not only continue to argue the case against Labor but also win over those undecided voters in the city who otherwise may choose to stick with the devil they know. That may mean promoting polices that resonate with city voters even if it risks being marked down by some in the bush, something that Frecklington and the LNP have yet to attempt.

Next year’s election marks the introduction of four-year terms. For the LNP — a party that has held office for only five years out of the past 30 — a loss would be devastating.

But as Bjelke-Petersen once said of the challenge of trying to entice both city and country Queenslanders, it’s like running along a barbed wire fence with a foot on either side: “It doesn’t work and it’s not very comfortable.”

Scott Emerson was a minister in the LNP government in Queensland. He appears on Sky News.