Little hope in Gaza peace plan better than no hope at all
In order to be optimistic about this plan one would need to have no knowledge of the history, culture or ideology of the Palestinian people or the Israelis.
For example, the people of Gaza over decades have shown no interest in the economic and development opportunities that so motivate President Trump.
Hamas remains wildly popular in Gaza and the West Bank, even after close to two years of heavy fighting, showing the strong ideological support the terror group has from ordinary Palestinians.
When a society sees more benefit using women and children as human shields to sustain terror attacks against Jews, the hope of redeveloping Gaza is not going to gain many supporters.
For its part, Israel rightly sees Hamas as an existential threat. Jerusalem will not compromise on its security even while backing Trump’s peacemaking attempt.
American military power, diplomatic heft and, above all, money are the critical differences that might lend this peace process some forward momentum.
What will be vital in coming days is whether any Middle Eastern country is prepared to sign up to the peace process. Article 15 of the plan says Jordan and Egypt will be consulted on how to provide support to “vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza”.
The plan will create an “International Stabilisation Force to immediately deployed to Gaza”.
No Middle Eastern country has been prepared to do peacekeeping in Gaza. If Trump persuades some Muslim countries to step forward that will be a Nobel Peace prize-worthy outcome. There will be pressure on Trump to use the American military. After two decades of the “Global War on Terror” there is little American appetite for deploying military forces to the Middle East. To avoid that the United States will have to dig deep to fund non-American military, aid and redevelopment support.
Article 9 of the plan says “Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic apolitical Palestinian committee responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services for the people of Gaza”. Finding and funding such people will be hard, but Trump’s personal commitment should not be faulted. He will chair a Board of Peace to “set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program”.
Former UK prime minister Tony Blair will be on the Board of Peace. Here is an opportunity for Anthony Albanese. After a lifetime of performative theatrics on the Palestinian cause, Albanese should step forward to directly assist in the transformation of Gaza. The Prime Minister could ask for a role on the Board of Peace.
Australia could link its own so-called “conditions” for recognising Palestine to the Trump plan. This offers a means to reform the Palestinian Authority, hold elections, disarm Hamas and reform education in Gaza. Supporting Trump’s plan could transform an otherwise uninspiring current political relationship between Australia and the United States. How Hamas responds to this proposal is another unknown factor. Article 13 says “Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form”. The peace plan requires Hamas to hand over its weapons to be destroyed, along with giving up “military, terror and offensive infrastructure including tunnels and weapons production facilities”. Hamas cannot accept these terms; it has been fighting to entrench its control over Gaza, not to make peace.
Article 6 of the peace plan allows Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence to receive an amnesty: “Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.” No country will want to accept these terrorist fighters. Qatar was happy to house the Hamas political elite. It will be considerably more wary of receiving dozens of combat-hardened jihadis. Could Albanese offer to Trump the possibility of relocating Hamas fighters to Australia? Perhaps they could be greeted at Sydney Airport, as Gazan refugees were this week by Immigration Minister Tony Burke. I do not seriously make that suggestion.
Australia should resist under all circumstances providing safe haven to former terrorists, even those “granted” amnesties.
Trump deserves credit for articulating a plan, even in sketchy terms, about the future of Gaza and for adding the weight of the American administration to its implementation.
Trump goes where Middle East experts fear to tread. Courage and audacity are surely needed to find a solution to an otherwise intractable problem.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu understands where his country’s fundamental strategic interest rests, which is ensuring the US supports it. In his past two visits to the White House, Netanyahu has looked bemused. He knows that if Hamas rejects the deal that will strengthen his use of the Israel Defence Forces in Gaza.
The peace plan represents not the best hope but the only hope for peace in Gaza. It is a faint hope at that. But the international community should get behind it in the absence of any better solutions.
That means Australia should embrace the plan and work out how best to support it. Albanese should engage his friend President Prabowo of Indonesia: How could Australia support an Indonesian military role for the International Stabilisation Force?
Australia could help train Indonesian peacekeepers, as we have done in the past, and provide logistic and sustainment support.
A prominent role for Indonesia could lift Jakarta’s international standing, not least in Washington DC. It could become the basis for a rejuvenated defence relationship with Australia.
Albanese has long declared there is no place for Hamas in Gaza. Backing Trump’s plan would test that claim, giving Australia a supporting role in reforming the Palestinian Authority, disarming Hamas and rebuilding Gaza, while strengthening ties with Washington and Jakarta. It is not perfect, but it is the only plan on offer. It deserves our support.
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