Libs jump after seeing how the west was won

Premier Peter Gutwein. Picture: Zak Simmonds

Peter Gutwein would have Tasmanians believe this is the election they had to have, to save the state from the evil grip of minority government.

It’s baloney — mostly.

The calling of a snap election almost a year before it is necessary has more to do with events in Perth than those in Hobart. Gutwein wants to “do a McGowan” and use his COVID saviour status to wipe the floor with a dishevelled opposition.

It is true the Liberals slipped into minority government this week, due to Speaker Sue Hickey quitting the party after Gutwein gave her the bad news she would not secure preselection again.

However, Hickey, who had crossed the floor on multiple occasions and been a thorn in the government’s side, had promised supply and confidence.

What’s more, fellow balance-of-power independent Madeleine Ogilvie has shown herself more often than not to be an ally of the government and has previously not ruled out joining the Liberals.

If majority government was Gutwein’s only motivation this could have been secured by persuading Ogilvie to join the government, if not the party.

Such scenarios had been discussed. Ogilvie, an ex-Labor Right faction MP facing an uphill battle to get re-elected as an independent, appeared open to either possibility.

In fact, Gutwein on Friday did not rule out Ogilvie running for the party at this poll.

However, failing an Ogilvie solution, Gutwein is right to argue stability may not have lasted. Having declared her independence on Monday, Hickey couldn’t wait to start throwing hand-grenades at her former Liberal brothers and sisters. Eric Abetz was the first, but very unlikely to be the last.

Labor and the Greens showed restraint in not playing games with the new minority situation this week. But you could argue this, too, was unlikely to last for long. Both opposition parties, combined with Hickey, had shown they could run the agenda, uniting to ram controversial transgender laws through the Assembly in 2019.

The real reason for the snap poll is that the Liberals realise things are not likely to get much better for them between now and the due date for the poll, March 2022. Some key seat polling no doubt solidified their thinking. Not only has the government lost its tenuous control of parliament, but the state budget is afflicted by billion-dollar-plus debt and deficit, albeit with signs of improvement due to the recovery.

So can Gutwein do a McGowan? The Libs are riding high in the polls: 52 per cent in the most recent, to Labor’s paltry 27 and the Greens’ 14. But things are not so simple under the multiple-member Hare Clark voting system. A big statewide vote does not necessarily translate to majority government.

A McGowan-like triumph on May 1 is far from certain.