Infection curve would have dropped without going to stage four

Victorians are glad to see a downward curve in the number of daily COVID-19 cases since the peak of 725 new cases on August 5. That peak was predictable when our infection curve was compared with observed data from comparable countries that experienced community transmission three to four months ahead of us. However, it was not predicted by modelling from the University of NSW’s Kirby Institute (“State’s mounting cases on track to hit 1000 a day if lockdown fails”, 1/8). Such modelling may have influenced the decision to proceed to a stage-four lockdown.

It is unlikely the declining infection curve since the start of stage-four restrictions is attributable to those tighter restrictions, given the time required for infection, appearance of symptoms, testing and release of results. However, given the huge incremental cost to the national economy of stage four (up to $12 billion, according to our PM) we must pose the question: would we have entered stage four if the peak had appeared a week earlier? Both the curve and the economics now make a strong case for an orderly return next week to stage three restrictions.

Michael Asten, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic

Steve Waterson must be highly commended for his critique of the strategy employed in the war against coronavirus (“Expensive epidemic of runaway stupidity”, 15-16/8). A good general designs his war strategy, regrettably, on an acceptable level of casualties on his side. If he is not prepared to accept any casualties, he should raise the white flag before the start of the war. Our war strategy against the virus is being formulated on the basis of casualties being unacceptable. This is totally unrealistic. Most coronavirus statistics published in Australia serve no purpose other than frightening the readers. At the same time the economic cost of this war and the consequences for society in terms of unemployment, bankrupt businesses, suicides, family violence, mental and physical illness and the despair felt by the young and unemployed are increasing at an unacceptable level. Stage two and higher lockdowns as war strategies to eliminate the virus have shown little promise except to trash the economy.

It is time to adopt strict adherence to safe distancing and good hygiene practices as our virus strategies and re-open factories, educational institutions, shops, restaurants, public transport, playgrounds to promote normal functioning and rebuild the economy.

Bill Mathew, Parkville, Vic

I want to thank Steve Waterson for daring to speak his mind and say what so many of we smaller voiced people have been saying all along and are then accused of being virus-deniers. I agree and have frequently said to anyone who would listen that the pandemonium will cost us far more than the pandemic ever could.

Colleen Wilson, Gold Coast, Qld

Steve Waterson fails to understand exponential growth, writing, “If we cancelled Victoria’s lockdown immediately, and its cases were permitted to grow at 1000 a day, the whole state would be infected in no time ... 18 years.”

That’s not how it works. At a 15 per cent daily growth rate, it would be 1000 new cases today, 1150 new cases tomorrow, 1322 the next day, and so on. In a month we could be looking at 66,000 new cases per day.

What makes this error particularly galling is that Waterson spends his opening paragraphs smugly lecturing the rest of us about basic maths.

Brett Austin, Footscray, Vic

Note from Steve Waterson:
When I said if cases grew at 1000 a day it would take 18 years to infect the whole of Victoria, I was trying to indicate that while 1000 sounds like a huge number, in the context of a large population, it’s not. I was not attempting to predict the course of the virus, which I leave to statistical modellers and those with crystal balls.