Fears aside, could all this be a massive overreaction?

I am a middle-aged professional male who is not politically active. I will not be negatively impacted financially by the COVID-19 policies of federal and state governments. However, I am getting more and more concerned that the government response to the virus may have been too drastic.

Six or so months in, the data is starting to become more meaningful. Sweden, which essentially adopted a herd immunity strategy, now predicts that 7000 people will die from COVID-19, not the 150,000 first projected. Furthermore, herd immunity has kicked in with a 20 per cent infection rate, not the 60 per cent first predicted. This, in turn, means Sweden is unlikely to have a second wave and its mortality rate per capita will end up being similar to some countries that adopted lockdown policies. Finally, the money saved by the Swedish government on lockdown — welfare payments and other measures — was more directed at protecting the most vulnerable in the community.

Some eminent health experts are now predicting that COVID-19 lockdowns and fear in the community will increase deaths from cancer, TB, malaria and mental health issues (leading to suicide) by 10 per cent over the next five years. This is mainly due to people with these ailments not seeking (or getting) the medical attention they should for fear of catching COVID-19 or directly because of the lockdown they are enduring. When you consider that 50 million people around the world die of these diseases every year, a 10 per cent increase in deaths means an extra 25 million people could die over the next five years as a direct result of COVID-19 fear and lockdowns.

While the economic damage from COVID-19 is already a massive burden that will impact generations to come, it may transpire that the policies of most Western countries were correct if a safe and effective vaccine can be found in the next six months or so. However, data is starting to emerge that could suggest Western countries may have seriously overreacted to this virus and that this will devastate many livelihoods without saving many lives in net terms.

Simon Warner, Kew, Vic

The unfolding crisis in Victoria with a record 725 new cases yesterday concerns us all. In the midst of the challenge to contain this outbreak, the last thing the community wants is a political blame game.

The federal government has responsibility for accreditation of nursing homes, but it doesn’t run them. The problems are not new and occurred under Labor governments, too. Historically, there were no unannounced spot checks of facilities. The operators were all given prior notice of accreditation visits and too few facilities were sanctioned, then and now. If anything, the problems have grown, with many residents admitted at a palliative stage and cared for by a largely casualised workforce.

Cost cutting and inadequate staffing levels are all too common in the business model of private operators. It’s the same system as it was when Labor was last in government. Reforms are urgently needed as the royal commission has reported.

It assists no one to hear from Labor MPs that all the Victorian problems are the fault of the Morrison government. In response, one could point to obvious failures in hotel quarantine and contact tracing as the prime cause of the second wave.

Once this crisis has stabilised there should be a comprehensive inquiry. Why is it that the second wave got out of control in Victoria with dire consequences in aged care, while it was contained in all the other states?

In the meantime, let’s end the political spin. Truth has no ideology and readers will come to their own judgments. In that regard, the extensive coverage by The Australian has been very helpful and appreciated.

Jennie George, Mollymook, NSW

As Adam Creighton says, “there’s no reliable relationship between lockdowns and viral trajectories across countries” (“If New Zealand’s the coronavirus role model then we’re in strife”, 5/8). Sweden, without a lockdown, has a lower death rate (569 per million) than some European countries with lockdowns (for example, the UK has 682 deaths per million, Belgium has 850). It is time to consider how to live with the virus. We need to listen to Dr Harvey Risch, epidemiology professor at the Yale School of Public Health in his July Newsweek article “The key to defeating COVID-19 already exists. We need to start using It”.

Dr David Phillips, Tea Tree Gully, SA