Australia is being left behind on weather forecasting

Weather and climate forecasts using artificial intelligence, particularly artificial neural networks, are more reliable and skilful than traditional methods using general circulation models.

I have been publishing in the international peer-reviewed literature and running courses for Indonesian meteorologists demonstrating the technique for more than a decade. I first visited the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with Jennifer Marohasy in August 2011 to show the skill of my monthly forecasts using AI, relative to the bureau’s using general circulation models that attempt to mimic the physical process. These are the same models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and have proven unable to forecast more than four days in advance.

The bureau has steadfastly refused to consider AI despite it showing a capacity to produce skilful location-specific rainfall forecasts from one day (models developed by Google) to 18 months in advance (models developed by Abbot and Marohasy).

In “BOM out of climate driver confusion” (14-15/12), Karl Braganza claims an inability to forecast because of climate change. In the same article, University of Melbourne weather researcher Kimberley Reid claims general circulation models (physical models) are better than historical precedence. The reality is that Australia, and much of the West, is being left behind as China, Indonesia and others move to weather forecasting using AI.

Dr John Abbot, Senior Fellow, Institute of Public Affairs

The pretend game

Pretend politics at university, Gemma? (“Labor’s university politics is tearing the nation apart”, 14-15/12). Well, they’ve carted it from campus to Canberra with the whole Labor team now playing “Let’s Pretend” across all policy areas. It’s a great game and goes something like this.

Let’s pretend that Israel is the problem in the Middle East. Let’s pretend that appointments based on anything but merit will end well. Let’s pretend that the failure of some is the fault of others and their privilege. Let’s pretend that men can be women. Let’s pretend we can run a country on renewables.

Let’s pretend that importing large numbers of people with values antithetical to ours and with no expectation of integration, aka multiculturalism, is in the national interest. And my particular favourite – let’s pretend that all cultures are equally good, and that making a judgment about good or bad, civilised or barbaric, is racist. In fact, let’s pretend that Hamas is a genuine partner in the search for peace, and that those historically illiterate fools in the West, wilfully blind to evil, ignoring atrocities, or validating, and even celebrating them as “decolonisation in action”, are good and moral people. And finally, let’s pretend that the battle for civilisation that the Jews are bravely fighting alone will not come for us.

We could play “Let’s pretend to devastate Australia”. But that game is well under way.

Jane Bieger, Mount Lawley, WA

Man of faith

Your editorial rightly pays tribute to former Liberal minister Kevin Andrews, who lived according to his Catholic faith principles in his political life as well as in his private life (“Kevin Andrews true to his beliefs”, 16/12).

Fighting against euthanasia laws is a tough gig for any politician, let alone a politician of faith who inevitably draws accusations of conservative bias.

As a champion of improved palliative care facilities, Andrews goes to his final rest as a man of compassion who stuck to his guns courageously, right to the end.

As Tony Abbott says, Andrews understood the fine-line distinction between dying needlessly in pain and euthanasia (suicide) in this progressive new world of ours.

John Bell, Heidelberg Heights, Vic

Your touching editorial for former Liberal minister Kevin Andrews portrayed the essence of the honourable man he was and emphasised the political memories he has left behind.

We met Margie and Kevin Andrews some years ago at St Christopher’s Cathedral in Canberra and we have been friends since then. Although we had similar political philosophies, it was the obvious devotion Kevin had for Margie, his family, his faith and his political situation that would impress anyone he met.

Your editorial has characterised him honestly and accurately, and we believe that with more Kevin Andrews the world would be a better place.

RIP, dear Kevin.

Lesley Beckhouse, Queanbeyan, NSW

Yes to that

I have a suggestion for the spending of Wesfarmers chair Michael Chaney’s recent cashing in of a chunk of his Wesfarmers shares (“Wesfarmers chair Chaney offloads $2.8m parcel of shares”, 16/12). How about he give it back to other, less wealthy shareholders as recompense for the $2m Wesfarmers donations to the Yes case for the voice referendum? When will we get our money back?

Emma Jeffrey, Walcha, NSW