All pain and no gain in achieving emissions targets

Paul Kelly may be correct in saying that the political times require a more aggressive approach on climate policy (“Singed PM’s fight to douse political fire”, 1/2). Roger Pielke showed that for the world to achieve zero emissions in fossil fuel power generation by 2050, we would need to deploy three nuclear power station’s worth of CO2-free energy every two days, and decommission one nuclear power station’s worth of fossil fuel generation every day from a date in 2018 to 2050 to reach net zero emissions in power generation alone.

The problem varies considerably for different countries but the challenge is immense. Take New Zealand which has such a target that analysts estimate will cost 16 per cent of GDP annually to achieve a tiny reduction in global temperature. All pain, no gain. It is time we demanded that our politicians explain in detail the costs and consequences.

Denzil Bourne, Jerrabomberra, NSW

Bjorn Lomborg (“We don’t have money to burn on green mania”, 1/2) makes a point that is rarely considered. It doesn’t matter if we are rich or poor, or a family budget or a country’s budget, money finite. We are spending billions on green mania, and within this funding there is a poor ranking of priorities. Even though we might like to spend money on green issues we must realise that each dollar spent is a dollar not spent on health, education and social welfare.

N. J. Ford, Kambah, ACT

Chris Kenny (“Sticking with the sensible”, 1/2) reinforces the view that sections of the commentariat are still smarting at their dud predictions about the result of the May election. It has been hard for the Canberra bubble to admit they had been seduced by pre-election polling and the opinions of their colleagues.

To justify their embarrassment, they will use any means to criticise the Prime Minister, even going so far as to blame him for the recent bushfires because of his climate crisis views.

Hugh Francis, Portland, Vic

Pep Canadell (“Fire weather worsening: more heat, less rainfall”, 1/2) is right to argue for a resilience and adaptation plan for managing the increased risk of extreme fires. But he is mistaken when using statistics and projections from 2005 for his example of Canberra suggesting up to 24 per cent and 66 per cent increase in extreme fire danger days by 2020 and 2050 respectively.

Those statistics used a range of assumptions on CO2 increase which are now invalidated because actual trends in global temperature and CO2 emissions require redefinition of the business-as-usual global emissions scenario. A recent published study suggests scenarios about 45 per cent lower than those older projections.

What must become a priority is for our research institutions to update the plethora of reports of the past couple of years on predicted warming, rainfall, drought, fire, glacier and ice cover, to become consistent with observational data of the past decade.

Michael Asten, Monash University, Vic

I am pleased to be able to advise Andrew Lake (Letters, 1/2) that scientists definitely work and do not simply rely on opinions. The relationship between CO2 and climate change has been understood since 1856 when the work of Eunice Newton Foote was published. We have known since 2011 that this theory was proved in their laboratories by scientists from Exxon in 1934. This work was repeated by Exxon in more detail in 1977.

Closer to home, the CSIRO did similar work, building a physical, not theoretical, climate model to demonstrate exactly how CO2 caused climate change. The details of this work can be found and read in the CSIRO book published in 1982 The Greenhouse Effect, authored by G. I. Pearman, then head of CSIRO.

Barry Harrod, Fig Tree Pocket, Qld

Well done for publishing various views on climate change and bushfires. But two climate change believers give very disparate opinions. Bjorn Lomborg tells us that the average area burnt by bushfires over the past decade was 4.8 per cent of the continent.

On the other hand, CSIRO scientist Pep Canadell gives a more apocalyptic view in telling us that the past few months have been unique and the largest fires in the region since records began and blames climate change.

Such different viewpoints presented as facts by experts either polarise opinion or result in a turn-off from the whole issue.

Hilary Mercer, Rockhampton, Qld