Israel rolls dice with high-risk assault on Hamas terror leaders meeting in Qatar
No one should weep for the five Hamas operatives reportedly killed in this strike, but it does not necessarily follow that this attack will help advance Israel’s goals in Gaza or the prospects of peace.
Unlike Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly successful strikes on other terror leaders in the region, this particular strike is laden with political risk and could backfire on Israel’s Prime Minister.
Firstly, it has angered Donald Trump, who appears annoyed that the US was not given more notice of the attack, and who needs to keep Qatar onside given it hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East.
Trump’s ongoing support for Israel at a time when it is being isolated internationally is critical for Netanyahu’s ability to continue pursuing his war against Hamas in Gaza.
Although Trump, rightly, says Hamas must be destroyed, the Doha strike places at risk an American-led proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release, which Hamas was believed to be close to accepting.
Secondly, it has infuriated Qatar, which says its sovereignty was compromised. Although the Arab kingdom controversially allows Hamas’s political leaders to be based in Doha, it has played an important role as an intermediary in negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Thirdly, it has angered the few Arab friends Israel has in the region, namely the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the former a key player in the 2020 Abraham Accords that normalised their relations with Israel.
Just six weeks ago, the 22-member Arab League issued a historic joint call for Hamas to disarm and relinquish power in Gaza. Will this attack on the territory of one of those members undermine the belated but important commitment of the Arab world to supporting the removal of Hamas from Gaza?
And fourthly, the strike – which was ordered partially in retaliation for the Hamas-backed terror attack in Israel that killed six people – does not appear to have achieved its aim of killing the most senior Hamas political leaders. It is unclear whether those surviving leaders will now be willing to continue to negotiate over the US ceasefire proposal.
Indeed, the attack has upended the actual diplomatic mechanism for further discussions to end the war in Gaza that has seen Hamas negotiators dealing indirectly with Israel via Qatari, Egyptian and American mediators in Doha.
It is too early to know how all of this will shake out in the coming weeks, but it is difficult to imagine this strike will improve the chances of Israel and Hamas agreeing to the terms of a ceasefire.
The US proposal calls on Hamas to hand over its remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a US guarantee of talks to end the war.
Importantly, just hours after the Qatar strike, Netanyahu indicated for the first time that Israel would accept “the principles” of the proposal.
Just how Hamas will respond after this attack is anyone’s guess, but the terror group bears much of the blame for the repeated failure of the on-off ceasefire negotiations in recent months.
Netanyahu’s confidence – or perhaps overconfidence – in striking Hamas in Doha stems from his stunning success in killing terror leaders across the region since the October 7, 2023 massacre of Israelis by Hamas.
This has included wiping out the senior leadership of Hamas in Gaza, crippling the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon, assassinating top Houthi political leaders, and knocking off a host of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders and nuclear scientists in Iran.
These attacks have made Israel and the world safer. But the attack in Doha carries greater political risk for Israel. The coming weeks will determine whether it helped or hindered progress towards ending the war and returning the hostages.
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This tragedy requires leadership at all levels
Israel’s brazen, high-risk attack on the Hamas leadership in Doha sends a clear message to the terror group that its leaders are not safe anywhere, even its political apparatchiks living far from Gaza.