The Hamas kidnappings and murders represents a clear intelligence failure by the Israeli state. The fact that it came as a total surprise will worry citizens and politicians alike as to what might come next. It isn’t an exaggeration to describe it as the biggest intelligence failure since the Yom Kippur War, almost 50 years ago to the day. An unprepared Israel is something the tiny nation state has sought to avoid throughout its history.
Former Israeli ambassador Dave Sharma today described the attacks as Israel’s 9/11 moment, and he’s probably right.
Israel is now at war, it’s Prime Minister has said as much. Its response is unlikely to be the usual sort of limited military operation against Hamas we’ve seen so many times before. What Israeli forces call “mowing the lawn”. Rather, they will seek to destroy Hamas entirely with the military response forthcoming. Aiming to kill or capture its military leaders rather than simply degrade the organisation’s capabilities. That signals a drawn out conflict.
The fact there are hostages complicates Israel’s response. The hostages aren’t only soldiers, they include women and children, the elderly, and having been taken into the heart of Gaza you can be sure Hamas will use them as leverage. It may well reach a point where Israel faces big dilemma between negotiating their safe release and the nature of its military response. You can only feel for the families.
Then we have the regional implications to consider. Will other organisations such as Hezbollah in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihadists in the West Bank look to join the conflict directly? Hamas has urged them to do just that.
Internationally the picture is also complicated. These events will almost certainly suspend the Israel-Saudi peace talks, if not bring an end to them entirely. And is Iran involved in what has transpired? They have welcomed Hamas’ actions but in time we may find out their involvement goes beyond mere cheerleading. If so, what has transpired could cause wider regional contagion and conflict. We know how volatile the Middle East can be.
The Arab-Israeli conflict never went away, but outside of the region it has taken a back seat to other issues for some time now. That would appear to have changed for the foreseeable future.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at The University of Western Australia and Griffith University
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