Israel is likely to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next six months. A fascinating piece in the well-regarded US conservative journal the Middle East Forum argues an Israeli attack is imminent. Sources in Israel think that assessment overblown. They emphasise Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will be careful about negotiations the Trump administration is having with Iran over a possible agreement.
The MEF reports that the US Defence Intelligence Agency believes Iran could produce enough nuclear weapons-grade material for one nuclear bomb within a week, if it decided to. After Iran twice attacked Israel with missile volleys, Israel responded by wiping out much of Iran’s most sophisticated air defence capabilities.
Therefore, there is a certain logic to Israel undertaking a strike now, or soon. The longer it waits, the more Iran will rebuild air defences, which could enact a serious toll on Israeli planes and aircrew. Israelis understand they can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear program from the air. But they believe they can hit “choke points” in the program and set it back several years.
Israeli military action has vastly reduced the potential of Iranian proxies, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthis in Yemen, to provide significant military support to Iran in the event of Israel-Iran conflict. Similarly, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and the subsequent destruction of most of Syria’s conventional armed forces by the Israeli Defence Force, has removed from the board Iran’s single most important state ally in the Middle East. For some Israelis, therefore, it’s now or never.
However, the possible costs of an Israeli strike are also enormous. Although the Israeli government will ultimately act independently to protect its existential interests, everything depends on Donald Trump. An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is the most predicted, and most postponed, event in the Middle East. Over the past decade or more I have on a handful of occasions been told by people at the very top of the international system that an Israeli strike would shortly take place. To be clear, I’ve never been told that by US or Israeli officials. Nor was I ever given a specific date. But my interlocutors were people at the top of national systems, who you would expect to know of the likelihood of such a strike. I’ve concluded, and there has been some limited reporting to this effect, that on several occasions Israel decided it would strike the Iranian facilities but was talked out of it at the last minute by the Americans.
Barack Obama got an extremely weak deal with the Iranians, which recognised the legitimacy of the Iranian nuclear industry, accepted in principle that Iran could enrich uranium up to a certain point, and had a quite limited duration, so that after the agreement expired Iran faced very few restrictions.
In his first term as president, Trump withdrew from this deal and imposed heavy sanctions on Iran. Sanctions are Trump’s preferred tool of coercion, almost his preferred tool of statecraft, and they’re often quite effective. In this case they didn’t markedly change Iran’s behaviour but did deprive it of funds. Joe Biden, in one of his countless Middle East miscalculations, greatly softened the sanctions in pursuit of a deal with Iran, which went nowhere. Now it really seems as if a lot of factors are converging to create a fateful moment of truth.
The Trump administration has been trying one last time to negotiate a full deal with Iran. If it gives up its nuclear program and stops sponsoring terrorists, Iran can be released from all sanctions and, if it wants, welcome US and other international investment. The Iranians, under a lot of pressure, look as though they would enter a deal in which they meaninglessly promise to stop sponsoring terrorism, and also promise to keep their nuclear program at enrichment levels well below that needed for a nuclear weapon. That’s the real sticking point. The Israelis, and Trump in some of his statements, have said the Iranians must abandon all uranium enrichment. This is a perfectly reasonable position. The Iranians time without number have threatened the total physical destruction of Israel. Their official state ideology is one of extreme Islamism, in which the US and Israel figure as entities of eternal evil, which the Islamic revolution has a duty to destroy.
The reason the Iranians are willing even to talk about a strong deal with Trump, when they wouldn’t with Biden, is that they fear Trump could hit them militarily. They didn’t have this fear of Biden. My best guess is Trump won’t strike the Iranians militarily under almost any circumstances. Whatever you might say about Trump, you cannot accuse him of recklessly engaging in military conflict. He is not exactly an isolationist. But a central part of his ideological approach is to denigrate, if not altogether repudiate, the element of US international leadership which has involved military action far from home. He did conduct a bombing campaign against the Houthi rebels, against the wishes of his Vice-President. This was ostensibly to stop the Houthis from attacking international shipping, especially US shipping, in the Red Sea. Even this seems to have been partly show – the Houthis had already stopped attacking US and most international shipping – but it allowed Trump to make a triumphal announcement. Notably, Trump didn’t insist the Houthis stop attacking Israel. Nonetheless, he will be far more permissive of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities than Biden or Obama. The Trump administration has already transferred much of the necessary ordnance to the Israelis to do the job. But even with Iran’s air defences degraded, it would be a dangerous and costly job for Israel to do alone. It would be far more effective if the US and Israel acted together.
Israel and the US devote intense intelligence resources to Iran and believe they would know when and if the Iranians move decisively towards a nuclear weapon. The greatest danger from Israel’s point of view is that some of Trump’s advisers sell him on a deal that allows Iran to keep enriching uranium. The Israelis would certainly feel constrained about bombing Iran if Trump himself has just declared victory. But if they felt it necessary, the Israelis would still strike, perhaps after an interval. It’s unlikely the Iranians will accept ending uranium enrichment. A whole new Middle East conflict may be just around the corner.
Netanyahu really had no choice
Israel’s military strikes on Iran take the Middle East to a point of maximum danger of wider conflict, but also perhaps a moment of maximum opportunity.
This ‘real’ war is 40 years in the making
After four decades of feint and parry, stratagem and counter stratagem, the Jewish State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran now stand four square against one another in open conflict.