If Sussan Ley was a Labor leader, she would have been rolled by now

Sussan Ley. Picture: NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers

Sussan Ley would have already been rolled as leader if she was in the Labor Party.

Successive Newspolls paint a picture of a leader struggling to connect with voters, who is being suffocated by constant leadership speculation.

Senior ALP figures, who say their comrades would have already dumped the leader if Labor’s numbers were that bad, are convinced that the first female Liberal Party leader will not make it to the May budget.

With the Coalition’s primary vote at a rock bottom 24 per cent, the Opposition Leader is clinging on for dear life.

Ley’s supporters had hoped that dumping net-zero emissions by 2050, fast-tracking a tougher migration policy and conducting a national media blitz would have at least swung some conservative voters back from One Nation.

But it will take time to convince disillusioned voters to return to the Coalition, and Ley is swiftly running out of time to turn the ship around.

Despite political sympathy for Ley’s predicament – after she inherited a bin fire from former Liberal leader Peter Dutton – the veteran MP is now being forced to cede control to the dominant conservative faction that controls the numbers in her partyroom.

Being Opposition Leader after a devastating election defeat is one of the hardest jobs in Australian politics.

Anthony Albanese benefited from Bill Shorten winning the Labor Party leadership following Tony Abbott’s 2013 landslide election victory.

The argument for Ley claiming the mantle was that she could step up as an experienced Liberal figure to stabilise the Coalition, unite factions and devise policies that give the conservatives, or her ­successor, a fighting chance at ­future elections.

Ironically, Ley’s dire situation has allowed her to land the dumping of net zero, keep nuclear power in the mix and bring ­forward work on a more hardline migration position.

The combined effects of the Coalition fighting for its political future and no obvious leadership contender gives Ley a freedom that a conservative or moderate Liberal leader might not have to push harder and faster.

Newspoll shows voters are not enamoured by Ley or any of her potential leadership rivals, including Andrew Hastie, Angus Taylor, Ted O’Brien and Tim Wilson.

The question of who Australians would prefer to lead the ­Coalition revealed that 46 per cent of voters “don’t know”.

Of those who did engage, Ley (21 per cent) edged out Hastie (15 per cent), with Taylor (9 per cent), Wilson (6 per cent) and O’Brien (3 per cent) trailing a few lengths back.

Coalition and Labor MPs now believe it is a matter of when, not if, Ley will be replaced.

If the conservatives decide to call a leadership spill when MPs return after the summer break, they must finalise who their preferred leadership candidate is.

Liberal conservatives in favour of generational change are backing Hastie, who as a Perth-based MP with a young family must ­decide whether he is ready for the massive challenge.

Liberal conservatives who believe a safe pair of hands is needed to set up Hastie for the future are backing Taylor, despite reservations that he will struggle to stoke the Coalition base or cut through.

Wilson, who will again have to fend off a Climate 200 teals challenge in 2028, is the long-term hope of the moderates.

As her rivals attempt to sort out who it is that they want to challenge, Ley has limited time to fight for her leadership, lay a glove on Albanese and turn around the polls.