History beckons in Gaza but can Donald Trump rise to the moment?
The US President’s test is one of global leadership – is he is willing to take control and push through the obstacles that will inevitably arise as both Hamas and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu try to bend the implementation of his 20-point peace plan to their advantage.
At this moment, the world awaits whether Hamas will follow through on its claim that it is willing to release all of the 48 remaining hostages.
The terror group could easily scuttle this hope by making a new and unreasonable demand.
Trump has rightly upped pressure on Hamas by warning that any failure to release the hostages or give up power in Gaza would result in its “obliteration”.
The last thing Hamas wants is for Trump to give America’s full backing to Israel’s scorched-earth plan to take over Gaza City and seek to forcibly destroy the remaining rump of the terror group.
Hamas knows that Trump is the only person who can exert significant control over Netanyahu and that keeping the US inside the tent in all future negotiations over Gaza is better than excluding it.
Yet Trump also needs to be willing to strongarm Netanyahu in the days and weeks ahead to ensure that he and his right-wing coalition partners do not scuttle this first stage of a peace plan through any needless bloody-minded provocations in Gaza.
Netanyahu has scaled back – but not stopped – Israel’s bombing in Gaza in response to Trump’s demand that it stop immediately.
Netanyahu is understandably frustrated by elements on the peace plan that Hamas has not yet agreed to – such as his demand that the group disarm.
Hamas has also angered Israel by claiming that it wants to eventually play an undefined part in any eventual solution for a unified Palestine.
But this US-sponsored peace plan is a multi-layered beast that will require ongoing negotiations on many outstanding issues.
These include the manner and timing of the release of hostages and the linked question of the timing and extent of the Israeli military’s phased withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Negotiations over what the disarmament of Hamas actually means in a practical sense and the question of what sort of administration will succeed Hamas in Gaza are all far from resolved.
They remain key potential stumbling blocks.
But the most important part of this peace plan – the release of the hostages – looks set to be determined one way or another in the coming days.
Many commentators are sceptical that Hamas will release all of its hostages because it will lose any leverage over Israel.
This may be true, but it is not that simple.
The release of the hostages would turbocharge Trump’s peace process across the board for all parties.
It would almost certainly end the major combat phase of this war.
Why? Because if all the hostages have been returned home, Trump would be unlikely to allow Netanyahu to resume the war in a shattered Gaza against a largely broken Hamas.
There are still clear and present dangers to this peace plan ever succeeding, but Trump’s influence over Israel and Hamas has never been greater.
Trump failed to end the war in Ukraine, but in Gaza he now has a rare chance to become the global leader he always claimed to be. Can he do it?
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This is Donald Trump’s moment. The coming days are the most consequential yet of his presidency as he seeks to push both Hamas and Israel to a place they could never have arrived at on their own.