Gloomy outlook on Ukraine: a war without end

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets soldiers during a visit at a military training centre of the Western Military District for mobilised reservists, outside the town of Ryazan.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its ninth month, the question being increasingly asked is: when will this war end? But Vladimir Putin is digging in his heels and has imposed enforced conscription and martial law over Russia’s occupied territories in Ukraine. And we are witnessing an increase in the debate about whether Russia will soon use nuclear weapons to determine this war’s outcome.

There are four possible ways this war may end: first, Ukraine wins; second, Russia wins; third, there is a negotiated peace, and; fourth, there is no decisive victory and this dangerous war in Europe continues perhaps for a long time.

The scenario where Ukraine wins would see a Russia that is decisively defeated, and its forces entirely evicted from the territory of Ukraine. For this scenario to succeed, America and its NATO allies will have to seriously upgrade their supply to Ukraine of technologically advanced and highly accurate weapons.

Such a defeat for Russia would have crucial implications for its ranking as a serious military power. And it would have terminal implications for Putin’s survival. Moreover, it may well have profound consequences for the survival of the nation state of Russia. The disintegration of the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago into 15 different countries might not be the end of further secession elsewhere in Russia. There are parts of Siberia that have long felt ignored by Moscow (a puppet “independent” Russian Far Eastern Republic existed briefly in the early 1920s).

Unless there had already been a nuclear war between Russia and America, a defeated Moscow would still be in possession of some 6000 strategic nuclear warheads (including 1500 deployed and more than 4400 stored/in reserve) and their means of delivery. This new Russia would likely be racked with domestic instability and even more obsessed about the security of its remaining geography.

In this scenario a victorious Ukraine would still seek formal reassurances from the US about any resurgence of Russian great power revenge over “Little Russia” (Ukraine). So, a post-war peace in that part of the world would be far from assured.

The second scenario of a Russian victory over today’s Ukraine is much more ominous. Putin’s gloating and self-assurance would know no limits. He would be able to tell the Russian people: “As I promised, I have won a resounding victory for Mother Russia.” Russia’s reputation as a great power would be immensely boosted for the time being and America’s threats of catastrophic consequences for Moscow would have been shown to be worthless. And Putin’s good friend, Xi Jinping, would be suitably reassured about his chances of invading Taiwan and staring the US down.

Putin’s most serious threat, however, would be to turn his baneful glare on other former Soviet territories – particularly Moldova, Belarus and the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. And he might well include Kazakhstan (the northern part of which has a large Russian population and an artificial border with Russia drawn by Stalin). In this scenario Putin would face no plots to replace him as the effective dictator of an enlarged Russia in which he could boast he had regathered the lands of the Russian world (Russki Mir).

In this world, the balance of power in Europe would have been completely shattered. The entire eastern part of Europe – especially the former members of the Warsaw Pact – would fear, once again, occupation by the Red Army. NATO will have been shown as impotent in Putin’s eyes. The military situation in Europe would revert to the tense confrontation of the Cold War years with the ever-present risk of war but with Russia being seen to be the victor dictating the rules of engagement.

The third scenario involves a negotiated peace, which from present perspectives looks like pretty hopeless speculation. It is practically impossible to foresee how negotiations between Ukraine and Russia can result in an agreed end to this war, or even a negotiated suspension. For entirely understandable reasons, President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to see his Ukraine totally rid of any Russian military presence. Moreover, he quite rightly can see no reason he should reject the possibility of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. Even if there were an agreement by other powers – including the US – to secure Ukraine’s neutral status, he could not be sure Putin would never break his word.

It remains to be seen, of course, whether some form of ceasefire might be negotiated. But right now, it would be dangerous of Zelensky to agree to any pause in the fighting that would allow Putin the luxury of a ceasefire, which would give him time to rebuild his very damaged military.

So, we face the gloomy prospect of scenario four being the most likely outcome of this destructive, high-intensity war continuing for the foreseeable future.

Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya has recently observed that the Kremlin has effectively issued an ultimatum to the world: either Russia wins Ukraine, or it will resort to nuclear escalation. She says Putin is single-mindedly driven to turn his gamble in Ukraine into a victory, whatever the cost.

And as American academic and commentator Walter Russell Mead has warned America’s leaders, the threat Putin poses to US vital interests must not be underestimated because the threat that he will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real.

Professor Paul Dibb’s report, The geopolitical implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute last month.