Friendship of Jacinda Ardern, Anthony Albanese no guarantee for trans-Tasman relations
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has framed her visit to Australia later today as an important moment for NZ’s reconnecting strategy following her country’s re-emergence from Covid-19 hibernation. But she will be meeting Anthony Albanese at a time when the trans-Tasman relationship is at a low ebb and defined by sizeable disconnects over migration and foreign policy.
While the election of a Labor government in Australia does not itself signal a reset in trans-Tasman relations, hopes are high that the meeting between the two leaders – at a dinner tonight and a formal meeting tomorrow – will usher in a warmer and more aligned relationship.
But those hopes maybe well be dashed early if Albanese and Ardern fail to come to terms over the highly problematic areas that continue to gnaw at NZ-Australia relations.
Likely to dominate discussions are migration, and foreign and security policy, which are causing considerable friction between the two countries. Ardern has repeatedly signalled her displeasure at Australia’s strict deportation policy, while Beijing’s assertive inroads in the Pacific have illustrated stark differences between Canberra and Wellington on China policy.
These issues need to be smoothed out for the bilateral relationship to meet its potential and on paper, the prospects of reconciliating these differences look promising. Before their premierships Albanese and Ardern had already forged a good relationship through common progressive political stripes and party ties.
But in practice, there’s no certainty it will continue during national leadership. Historically, birds of the same political feather do not always build a good nest together when it comes to high level trans-Tasman relations.
Sir Robert Muldoon and Malcolm Fraser – conservatives both – had a famously strained relationship as leaders. On the left, David Lange and Bob Hawke were not particularly close as prime ministers.
Her hitherto friendship with Albanese aside, Ardern is particularly exercised about the deportation policy under section 501 of the Migration Act: especially the removal of individuals to NZ who have little or no connection to that country. Among other criticisms, this aspect, she asserts, runs counter to the prized NZ value of ‘fairness’.
Further, the policy, which allows deportation on the grounds of bad character or a criminal record is blamed by many in NZ for the rise of gang related violence, with pressure increasing on Ardern to show she is tough on crime.
The standoff over 501 is an open wound for Wellington, and one that is not likely to close anytime soon given Albanese’s commitment to retain the policy.
His acknowledgement that it is problematic for the relationship, and suggestion he might seek to amend it to account for length of stay in Australia, will not fully appease Ardern.
She famously told Scott Morrison in 2020 that he should not “deport your people and your problems” to NZ and she has vowed to be as forceful with Mr Albanese if necessary.
Nor are NZ and Australia on the same page over an increasingly assertive China in the South Pacific.
Beijing’s growing projection of power has seen Australia reorder its posture towards China, whereby the focus is now on security and strategic differences rather than mutual economic engagement. NZ, however, is content to continue allowing its economic relationship with China influence its policy settings.
Despite NZ last week allying itself with the US through a joint statement recognising China as a risk to regional stability – a move that infuriated Beijing – the NZ government later softened its own statement to exclude any reference to China. While risk management through hedging is central to Wellington’s approach to China, Canberra operates with sharper elbows in its own dealings with Beijing, and NZ’s perceived inaction is a continuing pressure point.
The contrast between Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s active engagement in the Pacific immediately after the election with her NZ counterpart Nanaia Mahuta’s near invisibility in the region plays into the idea long held by some in Canberra that Wellington is basically letting the side down.
Ardern will loudly resist any such insinuations during her Australian visit but Albanese will be hoping for more alignment over China, perhaps urging for less fencing-sitting from Wellington. However she is unlikely to yield readily to any pressure, knowing that explicitly picking sides will be folly for her small country and will almost certainly torpedo its relationship with either its biggest economic partner – a fickle China – or its most important security partner, a resolute United States.
New Zealanders generally want their leaders to form closer relations with Australia but are often left with the impression that such efforts aren’t reciprocated, and their extended hand is not always taken. It is now over to Albanese and Ardern to disprove this notion. Being friends beforehand is a good start for a good relationship, but certainly no guarantee.
Craig Greaves is a freelance writer who spent nearly a decade working for the US State Department advising on NZ foreign policy and NZ politics.
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