Queensland Labor’s star Health Minister Shannon Fentiman’s seat at risk
G’day readers, and welcome to the final Feeding the Chooks before the official kick-off of the election campaign on Tuesday. Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Fentiman flails in Waterford
Shannon Fentiman, the woman most likely to be Labor Opposition leader if Steven Miles is trounced on October 26, is in trouble in her own safe Labor seat.
ALP insiders say the Health Minister is facing a monster two-party preferred swing of 13 per cent in her outer Brisbane electorate of Waterford, which she holds on a Covid-boosted margin of 16.02 per cent.
There’s confusion about who commissioned the dire phone poll by Labor’s preferred pollsters Talbot Mills (business partners with banned lobbyists Evan Moorhead and Fentiman’s ex-husband David Nelson), but the smart money is on the MP’s own union, the AMWU. The union did not respond to Chooks query about whether it commissioned the poll.
The fact there’s even polling in such a safe seat reveals the ALP’s tremors entering the campaign, which officially kicks off with Miles’s visit to Governor Jeannette Young on Tuesday.
A young local councillor, Jacob Heremaia, is the LNP’s Waterford candidate.
And the result of the expensive interviewer-led phone poll doesn’t help: a dramatic erosion in the 2PP vote versus the LNP, from 66 per cent in 2020 to just 53 per cent now.
On those numbers Fentiman will hold Waterford – which Labor has lost for just one term since 1992, by the aforementioned Moorhead – but it’ll become ultra-marginal.
And it bodes terribly for the outer-suburban battleground where the election will be fought and likely lost.
Fentiman had been out for the past several weekends doorknocking, Bunnings barbecuing, and selfie-ing with voters; will it be enough?
The three-term MP, who was elected when Palaszczuk became premier in 2015 and elevated straight into cabinet, says: “It’s a privilege to be the member for Waterford and I’ve never taken the support of my community for granted”.
“I’m confident they’ve seen my achievements as their local MP including the largest ever expansion to Logan Hospital, more police and housing, more bus routes and 50c fares on public transport,” Fentiman says.
Her main rival for the Opposition leadership is Right faction caucus leader, Deputy Premier and Treasurer Cameron Dick, sitting happily in the state’s safest seat, Woodridge, on a 26.3 per cent margin.
Will the pair of lawyers-turned-politicians be fighting over the spoils of defeat after October 26?
Let the games begin.
De Brenni in da witness box
The day of reckoning has arrived for Queensland energy minister Mick de Brenni – and it couldn’t have come at a worse time for the state Labor Government.
Next Thursday, as Premier Steven Miles and Liberal National Party rival David Crisafulli prepare for the evening leader’s debate – the first of three ahead of the October 26 election – de Brenni will finally face the scrutiny he has largely managed to avoid for three years.
It’s when he will enter the box at the Federal Court, along Brisbane’s riverside, and under oath receive a grilling over what he did or didn’t do, knew or didn’t want to know about the running of one of Queensland’s biggest power stations before it blew up in 2021.
It promises to be explosive.
The ensuing shutdown of Callide C – operated and half-owned by the state government’s CS Energy – cut power to 500,000 homes and sent wholesale electricity prices soaring across the national grid.
Remember, this is one of the generators that Labor fought to keep in government hands at several elections so that it was properly maintained and they could keep powers prices down.
Well, that didn’t work out so well.
A report by forensic engineer Sean Brady into the explosion – and kept from public view until the Federal Court hearings shamed the government into releasing the draft mid-year – showed that a 2019 review found a maintenance backlog exceeded approved limits and had raised the risks of “increased asset failures” at the power generator in central Queensland.
The minister has repeatedly told parliament that all required maintenance had been completed ahead of the explosion.
But once the report came out, de Brenni shifted the blame onto the facility’s management and former Brisbane Labor mayor Jim Soorley – appointed as CS Energy chair by long time mate Annastacia Palaszczuk after she won power in 2015.
“What I was told was that all of their statutory and other maintenance that was required to be done was done,” he said.
“The CEO (then Andrew Bills) and the chair told me that.”
Chooks has been told that Soorley threatened legal action over the comments but was talked down by Labor mates so as to not embarrass the government with the election looming.
And it gets even more fun with the Federal Court run-down of the hearings.
CS Energy’s current chief executive Darren Busine will face examination on Tuesday – the day of the campaign kick-off – with Soorley entering the box on October 10.
The opposition, led by de Brenni’s shadow Deb Frecklington, has been asking questions and trying to draw attention to these costly failings for years.
And now, they have finally got a proper inquisition … at the beginning of the campaign.
Minister de Brenni, who often wears a smug smile as he bats-away questions about Callide in parliament and in front of the media, should be nervous.
One of the joint venturers in the collapsed joint venture that owned the plant, this year successfully sought the appointment of the special purpose administrator to replace the previous administrators over claims it was not doing enough to investigate potential failings of the state-owned CS Energy in running the facility.
The special purpose administrator, FTI Consulting’s John Park, has engaged experienced Melbourne silk Nick Hopkins KC – a past president of the Commercial Bar Association of Victoria and an expert in complex commercial matters – to examine de Brenni.
De Brenni’s fellow shareholding minister, Treasurer Cameron Dick, will not be required to give evidence.
“Dick would add no value,” a source close to the legal proceedings tells Chooks.
Cost of living woes
It seems the cost of living crisis is hitting everyone these days – even Lamborghini drivers.
The Libertarian Party of Queensland’s new candidate for the wealthy inner-Brisbane seat of Clayfield, real estate businessman Nick Buick, has caught the attention of plenty of political watchers with his ostentatious social media accounts filled with photos of his luxury cars and one recently captioned photo “I wonder what The Poors are doing today …”.
Buick, who was recruited to run by former Liberal National Party premier Campbell Newman, tells Chooks he is not worried about the optics of driving around town in his collection of flashy cars, which includes a Tesla X 75 with the number plate “Bougie”, a golden Lamborghini and a black Bentley Flying Spur (he rents them out when he is not using them).
“I didn’t come from money, I have a little bit of money now but I’m by no means a billionaire or anything. My dad was a carpenter, and my mum’s a schoolteacher – shout out to Mrs. B,” he says.
“My mortgage is $17,000 a month … It’s probably gone up a fair frickin’ bit from what it was when I last financed my portfolio.
“So, you know, it’s the cost of living effects everyone. It’s just one of those things, I didn’t plan to be a politician. I don’t believe politics is a lifetime career, I’ve already got a job, so what I want to do is bring some fresh ideas, get in there and make some changes and see if I can help.”
Buick’s big policy pitch to Clayfield voters is his backing of a new Olympic stadium at Hamilton Northshore.
“So we’ve got a couple of plans sitting on the table that are that are all abysmal … The QSAC idea’s terrible, the Victoria Park idea is not much better,” he says.
“Then we’ve got this 150 hectare site at Hamilton North Shore, sitting there doing nothing. It’s 5km from the city, it’s serviced by every kind of transport means you can imagine and it’s backdrop is the CBD so, it’s the perfect site.”
Chooks’ spies say Clayfield’s sitting MP Tim Nicholls is unlikely to be troubled by Buick, and internal party research shows the number one issue for the seat’s voters is crime, even more so than the cost of living.
And the internal polling shows the Greens are apparently sitting on a primary vote of 16 per cent in Clayfield, dimming the progressive minor party’s hopes of snatching the seat, which shares territory with the Greens MP Stephen Bates’s federal electorate of Brisbane.
LNP fills its roster
The Liberal National Party has filled its roster for the state election campaign, announcing its final candidate Freya Ostapovitch to contest the south Brisbane seat of Stretton.
Ostapovitch served one term in the seat during the Newman government and gained infamy for claiming in parliament that abortion increased the risk of breast cancer.
An interesting candidate choice, given Labor is ramping up attacks on David Crisafulli’s LNP over its position on abortion.
But with Ostapovitch locked-in, the LNP now has 37 female candidates, meaning women make up 40 per cent of Crisafulli’s team.
At the last election, the LNP had 67 male candidates and only 26 women (28 per cent).
After Scott Morrison’s crushing defeat at the 2022 federal election, when women turned on the Coalition, Crisafulli set a target for women candidates in seven of his 14 target seats. The LNP has managed to exceed the target – preselecting women in 10 of those 14 seats.
But even if a new wave of women are ushered in at the October 26 poll, they will be denied a seat at the decision making table with Crisafulli insisting he will not make any changes to his frontbench if elected.
There are just six women in the current 19-member shadow cabinet.
“And in future years, there is an abundance of talent knocking on the door of different ages, different genders, different backgrounds, that’s the renewal in the party that I said I’d lead,” Crisafulli said last week when asked if there needed to be more women on his frontbench.
Victorian Labor helps Queensland wage war
How grim is it really inside Queensland Labor headquarters? The ALP is careening headlong into defeat – according to published research, including this month’s Newspoll – and the party is grabbing help wherever it can find it.
Take the Victorian Labor branch, for instance, who has extended the hand of charity to their northern neighbours, this week sending $24,500 to pay the wages for the worker-bees at the QLD ALP’s Peel Street HQ.
While Labor is backed by a 15-union war chest – where each third party can spend up to $1m on the campaign – it’s lagging the LNP on donations.
This year, the ALP has attracted 744 total gifts worth $1.6m, compared to $4.6m given to the LNP in 1629 donations.
More cash will flow on Friday lunch time at a $1500-a-pop fundraiser for the LNP at the Brisbane Airport conference centre rooftop Sky Lounge, headlined by Queensland cricket royalty Ian Healy and recently retired Brisbane-born tennis player John Millman. Oh, and LNP frontbenchers John-Paul Langbroek, Sam O’Connor and Tim Mander will be there too.
Chooks has seen the invite, describing the shindig as the “LNP Sporting Legends Lunch” and spruiking Mander’s insights into finals footy as a former NRL referee.
Muted moneyman: Where in the world is David Janetzki?
Queensland’s alternative Treasurer – the LNP’s Treasury spokesman David Janetzki – has been missing in action lately. Chooks notes he’s only appeared at two state-alerted press conferences in the past two months, a surprisingly low public profile for such a vital portfolio.
Chooks hears Janetzki is working behind the scenes, beavering away at LNP campaign HQ in Albion on the Crisafulli Opposition’s policy costings, has been schmoozing business people, and launching candidate campaigns.
Will Janetzki front the press gallery on the hustings, or does the Opposition want to keep him behind closed doors?
An LNP spokesman tells Chooks that Janetzki “holds the critical role of scrutinising every aspect of the LNP’s policy framework which is why he also does more media right across Queensland than Labor’s lazy Ministers and will continue to do so throughout the campaign”.
“A Treasurer plays a critical role in any team, like a drummer in a band, and Queenslanders know (Labor Treasurer Cameron) Dick is out of time and David has his measure.”
By Chooks’ count, Dick (who also serves as Deputy Premier) has done 13 state-alerted press conferences since the start of last month, compared to Janetzki’s two.
Conservative billboard campaign
A Young LNP-linked third party has elbowed its way into the election campaign fray in Queensland, erecting anti-Labor billboards in inner-Brisbane electorates.
“Australians for Prosperity” registered as a third party this week, one of 34 entities (dominated by 15 Labor-backing unions) entitled to spend up to $1m ahead of October 26.
The billboards feature a laughing Steven Miles (with a rotating cast of characters including Labor backbencher Jonty Bush, and Ministers Mark Ryan and Leeanne Enoch) alongside the words: “Can’t Afford Them … Spending, Taxes, Waste”.
Who are Australians for Prosperity? The executive director is former federal Liberal MP and Brisbane City Councillor Julian Simmonds, former NSW Liberal staffer Will Dempsey is campaign manager. Advisory board members are Moscow and Melbourne-educated economist and Sky News commentator Nataliya Ilyushina, Liberal candidate for the federal Victorian seat of Macnamara Benson Saulo, TikTok influencer Jack Tossol, Queensland Young LNP president Alexandra Sinenko and federal Young Liberals president and former Peter Dutton staffer Darcy Creighton.
Simmonds tells Chooks that the group has been set up to “proudly hold those who waste taxpayers’ money to account, whoever they are”.
“The billboards are just the start of what we have planned for the Queensland campaign and our campaign against the federal government’s family savings tax,” he says.
Shooters back new Katter Steve
Pro-gun lobby group, the Shooters Union Queensland, is shelling out $10,997.22 to shuttle country music star Luke Geiger around Stephen Andrew’s electorate of Mirani for a series of free* concerts in aid of Andrew’s re-election campaign.
Faithful Chooks readers will know Andrew was recently ejected from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and joined Katter’s Australian Party, after being accused of being lazy and playing footsies with Robbie Katter’s powerful crossbench cartel.
A professional pest exterminator, Andrew has held the central Queensland seat of Mirani since 2017 and is the strong favourite to win again next month.
The three gigs (beginning on Friday night at the Alton Downs Polocrosse Grounds, west of Rockhampton) are free if you bring along the KAP flyer and subject yourself to hearing from party patriarch Bob Katter and Andrew himself. You must, however, BYO chair.
A Shooters Union spokesman tells Chooks: “Stephen Andrew is well known as a pro-shooting MP and KAP are similarly well known as supporters of law-abiding firearms users (and whom we have supported for a long time), so naturally we are happy to be supporting him in his election bid for the seat of Mirani.”
The Shooters Union has also given $5000 to Independent candidate Rhys Bosley in the safe Labor-held Brisbane seat of Algester (Leeanne Enoch, 17.8 per cent per cent), who discloses he’s a keen shooter and member of the KAP, while the Sporting Shooters Association of Queensland have tipped $6000 into Robbie Katter’s campaign coffers.
Gun groups bankrolled the KAP in 2020 to the tune of about $240,000, and Bob Katter’s son-in-law is Robert Nioa, chief executive of Australia’s largest arms dealer.
While the Nioas have heavily financially backed the Katter cause in the past, this year they’ve given solely to the LNP.
Be progressive, be be progressive
Facing a fight to fend off the Greens in her inner-city seat of McConnel, senior Labor Minister Grace Grace is working hard to drive home her lefty credentials.
While addressing a rally for reproductive rights on Friday, Grace was at pains to stress just how progressive the Labor government is.
“As a Labor member, I’m very proud of the progressive things that we have done, the progressive premier Steven Miles’s team,” she said, to open.
She closed with: “Can I just end up by saying I will always stand with women. I know our progressive premier Steven Miles will do exactly the same.”
Is this a new Labor catchphrase or for the benefit of the two Greens MPs and candidate watching on?
Spotted #1
Speaking of State Development, Industrial Relations and Racing Minister Grace Grace, she may have singled Steven Miles out as the star of her weekend campaign launch, but Chooks couldn’t ignore champion boxer Jeff Horn sitting next to the McConnel MP. We can understand why ALP president John Battams (Grace’s Old Guard factional ally) and Labor candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane Madonna Jarrett were there, but why did Horn show up?
Grace tells us: “Jeff Horn is a great friend of mine and a great fighter. I’d have Jeff and that other great fighter for this state, Premier Steven Miles, in my corner any day”.
Labor holds inner-city McConnel on a seemingly safe (ish) 11.06 per cent margin, but that’s a two-party preferred margin against the LNP. The inside word is that as soon as Grace decides to retire, the seat will fall to the Greens.
Spotted #2
Labor’s candidate for the Brisbane bayside seat of Redcliffe, Kass Hall, has a way of looking on the bright side.
The lawyer and vocal advocate for voluntary assisted dying is campaigning to keep the electorate in ALP hands after Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath retires at the election.
Out waving at voters on the Hornibrook Esplanade this week, she reported “so many toots and waves” but also gave a “special shout out to the seven people who flipped the bird at me”.
“In my family, that’s a sign of love, so I am feeling very loved this morning!”
Spotted #3
What on earth was Mansfield Labor MP Corrine McMillan doing parked outside the Brisbane campaign launch party of her political opponent Pinky Singh?
LNP faithful jumped on the chance to snap photos with their “adult crime, adult time” signs in front of McMillan’s car on Thursday night after spotting it parked outside the party.
Chooks spoke to McMillan who said she had parked her car on the street and hitched a ride into the city with a staff member to attend celebrations to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
“I had no idea her event was on,” McMillan says.
From the archives
This week Chooks took a trip back to the 1980s – what a tumultuous time in Queensland politics.
The reign of Chook-feeder Joh Bjelke Petersen and his conservative government came to a crashing end with the release of the Fitzgerald Inquiry report, student activism reached its peak at the state’s university campuses and Wayne Goss became Queensland’s first Labor premier in 32 years.
During our trip down memory lane, we stumbled on a photo of Labor MPs Bob Gibbs, Glen Milliner and the late Terry Mackenroth standing outside the parliamentary annex after being “refused service” in 1980. Naturally we were curious and gave Milliner a bell to get the backstory.
The former Goss government minister tells Chooks that the three men were all in their first parliamentary term and popped into parliament’s members’ dining room for a feed.
“
Mrs Glenie(one of the parliament’s staff) was about 110-years-old and a real stickler for the rules and the rule was you had to wear a tie into the dining room,” Milliner says.
(one of the parliament’s staff) was about 110-years-old and a real stickler for the rules and the rule was you had to wear a tie into the dining room,” Milliner says.
“ We were all young and rebelled, so we were kicked out. Terry went back in the next day with a shirt and tie, but put a skivvy on over the top of the tie so you couldn’t see it.”
Cheeky. Suffice to say Mrs Glenie was not impressed.
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