LNP to defy 27 years of Queensland political history
David Crisafulli has claimed a historic by-election victory in his hometown with his mate as his hand-picked candidate, taking the regional seat of Hinchinbrook back from regional force, the Katter’s Australian Party.
G’day readers and welcome to this week’s edition of Feeding the Chooks, your must-read behind-the-scenes guide to what’s really going on in Queensland politics. It’s a bumper edition, buckle up.
Dismal Labor result as LNP claims historic by-election victory
David Crisafulli has claimed a historic by-election victory in his hometown with his mate as his hand-picked candidate, taking the regional seat of Hinchinbrook back from regional force, the Katter’s Australian Party.
At a victory party at an Ingham pub on Saturday night – after the LNP recorded a 17 per cent two-party preferred swing to the government – Crisafulli declared “Katter country is now Chiesa country”.
“This is the biggest swing ever in Queensland history towards the government (in a by-election),” Crisafulli said, according to the Townsville Bulletin.
“I just want to make this point, I want to say welcome home, welcome home Hinchinbrook and welcome to the next member for Hinchinbrook.”
Last time the LNP held Hinchinbrook was ahead of the 2017 election, when the Katter’s Australian Party won the electorate.
The count continues on Sunday in the north Queensland seat – which was held by KAP MP Nick Dametto before he quit to successfully contest the Townsville mayoralty – but there’s been a big swing against the KAP and towards the LNP.
On an indicative two-party preferred count with nearly 72 per cent of the vote tallied, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has the LNP’s Wayde Chiesa ahead of the KAP’s Mark Molachino 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
The early results indicate a 17 per cent swing away from the KAP and to the LNP after preferences are distributed, indicating Crisafulli and his party’s attack on Molachino’s past as a Labor member have strongly resonated, and the KAP suffered the loss of Dametto’s strong personal support.
Chiesa has so far secured a primary vote of 41 per cent compared to Molachino’s 30 per cent.
If the Crisafulli government does win the by-election, it will be the first time a Queensland government has picked up a non-held seat in a by-election since the Beattie Labor government won Mulgrave, in far north Queensland, from One Nation in 1998.
The historic average of swings against the government in Queensland by-elections is seven per cent, and the largest swing experienced by a government to pick up a non-held seat in a Queensland by-election was 11 per cent towards the Nationals government to win the seat of Maryborough from Labor.
Hinchinbrook takes in the northern suburbs of Townsville and the rural area around the cane-growing town of Ingham, where Crisafulli grew up.
Labor headquarters was reluctant to run a candidate in the seat, which it hasn’t held since the middle of last century. But Opposition leader Steven Miles insisted – after public pressure from the LNP government – and former Townsville councillor Maurie Soars was endorsed as ALP candidate.
Soars is sitting on a dismal 8.3 per cent primary vote with 74 per cent of the first preferences vote counted, a swing of six per cent against Labor.
Some have suggested Labor’s result is an all-time low for the party.
One Nation candidate Luke Sleep has so far secured 13.5 per cent per cent of the primary vote, a 9 per cent swing to Pauline Hanson’s party since the October 2024 general election.
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On the hustings in Hinchinbrook
The Hinchinbrook by-election campaign delivered drama with some feisty exchanges on the booths, the bussing-in of LNP volunteers and overreach in the campaign advertising.
Katter’s Australian Party candidate Mark Molachino has been the favourite to retain the seat for the minor party.
But the result will serve as a test, depending on who is doing the talking, for the Crisafulli government, for Labor and – for Chooks, the most interesting – for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
The party of the government in power rarely wins a seat it doesn’t hold in a by-election, and Labor proved at last year’s state election that it is on the nose in the regions.
But with One Nation surging in the nationwide polls (up to 15 per cent), it will be interesting to see if they can convert at the ballot box and overtake the LNP for second spot, or even challenge the KAP.
While the pre-poll argy bargy at the booth has reportedly simmered down, it hasn’t stopped some from getting down in the mud.
The LNP launched a new attack ad this week, comparing Molachino’s previous Labor membership to former Townsville mayor Troy Thompson, who the corruption watchdog found had lied to voters about his military, university and health record.
“This by-election started because candidates weren’t honest about their past,” the LNP ad says.
“Not the same thing is happening again … let’s not go through this again.”
But Molachino, an active serviceman who has openly spoken to Chooks and other media about his party-switching past, said the attack implies more than it says.
“It’s an absolute disgrace,” Molachino tells Chooks.
“It’s a disgrace that the Premier and Minister for Veterans has done that to a vet.”
Molachino’s lawyers sent Premier David Crisafulli a legal threat on Friday afternoon, but the LNP doubled down.
Speaking of ads, we’ve done a bit of a deep dive on each party’s spending appetite.
The LNP spent $5190 on Meta advertisements across Facebook and Instagram throughout the campaign, but had only one post active on Friday – a video post that continued to lean into Molachino’s former Labor past. But a quick look at the party’s unboosted official Facebook page may leave you confused about who their candidate is.
Only 11 of the 50 posts made by the party since the poll began named Chiesa as their candidate, with the majority of others attacking the Katter candidate.
But KAP outspent everyone, racking up $5853 across 28 ads through November. One Nation allotted $1158 in ad spend to the platform, but funnily enough, none of the posts targeting the by-election feature the face of FIFO mining candidate Luke Sleep.
In contrast, Labor spent just $589 to help the good voters of Hinchinbrook apply for a postal ballot.
Opposition leader Steven Miles is on the hustings in Hinchinbrook on Friday, before jetting back to deliver his keynote address at the party’s state conference on Saturday.
Crisafulli is clearly desperate to win back Hinchinbrook – which takes in his home town of Ingham – for the LNP; taxpayers have footed the bill for him to be in the electorate seven times in the past four weeks.
A congaline of his ministers have also taken the trip; Treasurer David Janetzki, Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie, Mines Minister Dale Last, Sport Minister Tim Mander, Police Minister Dan Purdie, Youth Crime Minister Laura Gerber, Housing Minister Sam O’Connor, Attorney-General Deb Frecklington and Transport Minister Brent Mickelberg making at least 15 visits between them.
Labor’s gender woes solved by … a bloke
Queensland Labor’s beleaguered Right faction has stitched up a deal to solve ALP HQ’s gender quota problem … by bizarrely replacing a bloke with another bloke.
But the agreement was only struck once Opposition leader Steven Miles and his deputy Cameron Dick intervened and told the bickering factions to sort it out, lest the unedifying brawl spill over at this weekend’s state conference – and spark preselection challenges against sitting MPs ahead of the 2028 election.
Dedicated Chooks readers will recall that when the Left’s Ben Driscoll replaced outgoing Left state secretary Kate Flanders as HQ boss earlier this year, that posed a problem.
You see, Driscoll is a bloke, and so is the Right’s assistant state secretary Zac Beers. According to the party’s affirmative action rules, at least one of the two top jobs must be held by a woman.
The Right dithered for months over what to do, and the dominant Left took advantage, suggesting a rule change be moved at the conference to add an extra assistant state secretary position to be held by a woman of the Left.
NSW and Victorian branches have a similar two-assistant structure, and the Left has long wanted extra factional heft in HQ.
The Right blew up, offered to swap Beers with party organiser Bella Scattini if the Left backed down. The Left stuck to its guns and in increasingly fractious negotiations in recent days, both sides threatened to take the fight to the 2028 election and challenge sitting Labor MPs’ preselections.
Cue the intervention of Miles (Left) and Dick (Right). Cooler heads prevailed and Beers is expected to step down at conference, to be replaced by the Right’s nominee Australian Workers’ Union co-ordinator of campaign and strategy Luke Richmond.
Richmond – who is positioning himself for a future run at the state seat of Stafford, held by former ALP MP Jimmy Sullivan – and Driscoll both worked for Miles as Premier, and Beers is expected to take up a senior job with the AWU.
Exactly why the Right won’t replace Beers with the well-regarded Scattini is a mystery known only to themselves, though Richmond is thought by some to have more factional experience.
The second assistant state secretary position will be formally added on the weekend, but not immediately filled.
And before you assume the sitting Labor MPs – particularly those “veteran” pollies derisively nicknamed Dad’s Army – are safe to run at the next poll, think again. There’s plenty of time for challengers to sneak in.
Political pillow talk
Queensland rich-lister, pillow magnate and conservative Heath Goddard has launched a rebel group to overhaul the rules of the Liberal National Party, warning party apparatchiks the new body will “put some fire under the feet and arses” of the moderate-dominated establishment.
The LNP is threatening to expel Pillow Talk founder Goddard and Red Unions head-honcho Graeme Haycroft for their “Liberal Reform Association” aimed at dethroning “progressive” control of Liberal Party branches, massively expanding its membership, and overhauling preselection rules.
The pair reckon they’ve got the backing of former PM Tony Abbott for the new venture, which held its inaugural meeting at the manchester company’s head office in Darra last week – in the face of threats from LNP state director Ben Riley.
Goddard told the crowd – which included high-profile conservative LNP powerbroker David Goodwin, former LNP Premier, now Libertarian Campbell Newman, and Conservative Political Action Network (CPAC) co-founder Andrew Cooper – the new body would “put some fire under the feet and arses of those fellows (in LNP HQ) … it’ll be (us) from the outside pissing in.”
Colourful! But he insisted “we are here to help and support the Liberal Party” because grassroots people were “absolutely furious” at the state of conservative politics and the “nation (is) sliding into the sewer”.
On the eve of the meeting Riley sent sternly worded letters to both Haycroft and Goddard warning the “organisation of external bodies seeking to intervene in the internal affairs and governance of the party is a matter of significant concern”.
Haycroft told the Pillow Talk putsch that Liberal parties across the country were blocking conservative members from joining and were only allowing a group of delegates – in Queensland, the 300ish-member state council – to preselect the Senate ticket.
He said there should be 250,000 members who pay a $20 membership fee which entitles them to vote in all party preselections.
Goddard – who describes himself as conservative and “not woke” – tells Chooks he’s been a member of the LNP and its predecessor parties for 35 years and says he used to donate between $30,000 and $50,000-a-pop at the party’s request.
“I did all that but I’ve stopped, I might as well row a boat with four holes in it across the creek, that’s where we’re going,” he says.
No one’s been expelled – yet. Chooks expects the axe to fall after the Hinchinbrook by-election.
Barclay’s back
Young anti-abortion, anti-immigration conservatives are also trying to exert influence over Queensland’s LNP – even from the outside.
Chooks can reveal Barclay McGain – the former Gold Coast Young LNP chair forced to quit the party over a racist social media video in 2019 – has been publicly boasting he’s been recruiting like-minded youngsters to wrest back control of the party from the dominant moderate wing.
In a live online “debate” this week hosted by activist Drew Pavlou and contested by McGain and former LNP Senator Gerard Rennick (now the founder of his own minor party Gerard Rennick People First, McGain said he’d recruited 200 of the current 800 members of the powerful Young LNP youth arm.
The 25-year-old says he met his recruits at the anti-immigration March for Australia rallies or at church, and they were pro-life like him.
“It’s me and my friends, and we’re genuinely changing the future of the party, there’s literally less than 800 members of the entire Queensland Young LNP, and I’d say I’ve recruited about 200, and it’s growing,” he said.
McGain said he had been blocked from rejoining the LNP but reckoned he knew for “a fact” that 40 per cent of the state LNP MPs were pro-life and would change the state’s abortion laws if given the chance.
Premier David Crisafulli – with the backing of the LNP party room – changed parliamentary standing orders to prevent any debate on abortion law reform in this term of parliament, after his election campaign was derailed by Labor attacks suggesting he would be unable to control pro-life MPs.
Swan song for federal Labor HQ
It seems Queensland Labor’s aforementioned internal fix has now gone federal.
Chooks hears that a new assistant National Secretary position is being created in the ALP as part of a similar seat shuffle among officials in HQ.
At the moment, there is only one assistant National Secretary role, held by Jennifer Light, who two weeks ago announced her departure at the end of the year.
A deal has been done to split the job into two with one going to the Right faction and one to the Left under National Secretary Paul Erickson.
Chooks spies tells us that (outgoing) ALP president Wayne Swan has delivered again for one of his proteges, securing one of the jobs for Queenslander and member of the AWU-Right faction, Mitchell Kingston.
He’s also the husband of tyro state MP for Sandgate, Bisma Asif, and ran the local campaign for Anika Wells in her seat of Lilley at this year’s election, in which she more than doubled her margin.
The other Assistant National secretary job is apparently going to Rosie Ryan, who recently announced she was stepping away from her role as NSW Left Secretary.
ETU backdown
The Electrical Trades Union were talking a big game behind closed doors this week over their push for a resolution to be put to the floor of the state conference over the Federal government-led crackdown on the CFMEU.
As reported in The Australian on Thursday, the ETU had drafted a resolution which pushed for a repeal of the legislation that enabled the CFMEU to be put into administration.
“This 2025 ALP state conference calls upon state Labor in government to repeal this legislation and furthermore calls upon Queensland federal MPs and senators to lobby the ALP nationally to repeal this legislation federally as soon as possible,’’ the resolution said.
It was set to cause a clash of the unions on what is otherwise expected to be a fairly sedate conference, and put the swollen ranks of the federal Queensland party room in a difficult position given it was Anthony Albanese and Murray Watt who championed the legislation.
Despite the union warning ALP insiders they would not back down on the wording, ETU state secretary Peter Ong claimed The Australian had been misinformed (not really) and that it was about repealing the legislation after the administrators had done their job.
Chooks is still yet to see the conference agenda and has been told that negotiations are still ongoing and may not yet to be settled until Friday night, or even Saturday.
Spotted
First-term LNP MP Rebecca Young’s launched a side hustle in the name of “sustainable fashion,” selling off her work dresses on a Facebook page entitled “Bec’s Wardrobe – Fresh Fits, New Homes,” studded with pictures of Young in spiffy frocks at official events, including a press conference with Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie.
A red dress caught the eye of Redland City Council Deputy Mayor Julie Talty, prompting Young to promise to bring it “to the office” for Talty to try on.
If the MP is selling them out of her electorate office, Chooks understands that may not be in the “spirit” of the parliamentary rules that prevents the premises from being used for a commercial purpose.
Young tells Chooks there’s been no selling out of her electorate office, the sale is all about reusing and recycling, and that red clothing doesn't get much use in her wardrobe.
“We are more blue people,” she says.
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