Failure to upgrade ageing subs sees Australia falter at first AUKUS hurdle

The ageing Collins-class submarines – including HMAS Collins, HMAS Farncomb, HMAS Dechaineux and HMAS Sheean – need major upgrades to keep them in service. Picture: Lt Chris Prescott

Australia is faltering at the first AUKUS hurdle.

The nation’s ageing Collins-class submarines need major upgrades to keep them in service until they can be replaced.

This has been known for decades. Now, at five minutes to midnight, it emerges the government’s submarine builder, ASC, hasn’t done the design work for the first full overhaul to proceed as planned.

This is a failure with far-reaching implications. If the Collins subs don’t receive their complete life-of-type extensions they will be less capable and reliable just when we need them the most.

This will open up a critical capability gap ahead of the arrival of Australia’s nuclear submarines.

Even if the AUKUS program goes perfectly – a big if – the nation could be left without an effective submarine capability for years.

At a deeper level, this failure casts doubt on Australia’s ability to buy, build and sustain nuclear submarines. ASC is a key partner with Britain’s BAE Systems in the AUKUS plan to construct nuclear boats in Adelaide.

This is far from a confidence-inspiring team considering the litany of problems with the Collins and BAE’s stewardship of the scandalous Hunter-class frigate program.

Richard Marles chose his words carefully at The Australian’s Defending Australia summit in Adelaide this month when he was asked about the LOTE program, declaring: “I think it’s doable.”

At the time this seemed like a cautious endorsement of the program. It looks now like unfounded optimism.

The reality is ASC has warned the government its LOTE plans are not mature enough.

The fallback “LOTE lite” plan will leave the first submarine, HMAS Farncomb, with a nearly 30-year-old main motor, diesel engines and generators.

These are not trivial systems. Failing to replace them will handicap the boat as China launches between four and six nuclear-powered submarines each year.

One of the Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea. China’s leaders taunted us with their flotilla of advanced warships. Picture: Australian Defence Force

There is little to suggest ASC will be able to get its act together to be in a position to do a full LOTE on the second boat to be upgraded, the even older HMAS Collins.

Australian governments are chronic blowhards when it comes to submarines, talking about planned boats like they are already prowling the seas.

The reality is we are a nation with 34,000km of coastline forced to rely on a tiny and unreliable fleet of ageing diesel-electric boats because both sides of politics failed to plan for their inevitable retirement.

AUKUS, meanwhile, remains an article of faith for Australia’s political leaders, with little in the way of hard evidence to be confident it will actually happen.

China’s leaders, who taunted us with their flotilla of advanced warships last month, must think it’s all pretty entertaining. Australians should be horrified.

The onus will be on both parties at the coming election to come up with a plan to make Australia stronger. A significant boost to the Defence budget would be a start. Far-reaching reforms are also vital to shake-up Defence and ASC.