Boris Johnson’s latest last chance

Boris Johnson’s claim that he achieved “an extremely good, positive, conclusive result” in Tuesday’s confidence vote among Conservative Party MPs does not stand up to scrutiny. The scale of the revolt against his turbulent leadership, with 148 of his 359 parliamentary colleagues – 41 per cent – voting to dump him, plus the precedent of what usually happens after such votes, suggests no more than a Pyrrhic victory that has gained him a temporary reprieve.

Despite his win, he remains, as Europe correspondent Jacquelin Magnay reports on Wednesday, “deeply, some believe fatally, wounded”, with his beleaguered government doomed to become a zombie administration. His predecessor, Theresa May, secured a wider margin when a no-confidence motion against her was lost in December 2018 but was out of Downing Street within a few months when it became apparent her authority had been terminally undermined. John Major survived a leadership challenge by a much wider margin in 1995 but then led the party to a cataclysmic election defeat.

Mr Johnson may have a putative majority of 80 in the House of Commons. But his prospects look even more perilous than Tuesday’s vote suggests. About 140 Conservative MPs make up a so-called payroll vote of MPs who have government jobs and a stake in keeping the government of the day in power. But the situation remains fraught with danger for Mr Johnson because of the immediate challenges confronting him: two by-elections on June 23 in electorates where the Conservatives are defending large majorities but opinion polls show they are heading for heavy defeats, and an imminent ruling by the House of Commons privileges committee on whether he deliberately lied to parliament over the juvenile party scandal known as Partygate.

Even the most dedicated Johnson supporters agree if the ruling goes against him he will have to resign. Whether it does or not, it will fan further the flames of public outrage over the drunken festivities in Downing Street when the country was supposed to be in Covid lockdown and the Queen’s husband, Prince Philip, was on his deathbed. The depth of continuing public outrage was apparent when many spectators outside St Paul’s Cathedral in London last Saturday for the Queen’s jubilee service jeered the British Prime Minister when he arrived with his wife. It says much about his plight, and that of the Conservatives, that the Labour opposition, even under its dour leader Sir Keir Starmer, has a 20-point lead.

The next election in Britain is not expected before 2024. Whether that is enough time for Mr Johnson, if he survives, or whoever succeeds him to restore confidence in the integrity of a government deeply tainted by scandal and allegations of corruption remains to be seen.

Beyond Partygate, the government is seen to be failing on major policy issues. Even Mr Johnson’s promise that he would deliver Brexit remains, as The Times put it, “far from done”, with the government planning to rip up its own treaty over the Northern Ireland protocol, creating fresh uncertainty for business. Yet it has found time for a risible plan to reintroduce imperial weights and measures into Britain, something the country abandoned 50 years ago. This is being prioritised amid a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation at 9 per cent and the government showing few ideas about what to do about it beyond tax increases.

The majority of Conservative MPs who voted for confidence in Mr Johnson’s leadership have shown remarkable courage. Under the rules of the Conservative Party’s 1922 backbench committee, he cannot be forced to face another challenge for at least a year, although MPs can change those rules if they want to do so. Mr Johnson reckons his victory will enable his government and the Conservative Party to draw a line under Partygate and the other misdemeanours and missteps that have done so much to undermine public confidence in him. History suggests otherwise.