Dutton’s nuclear gamble a sign of true leadership

The Coalition pledges to build seven nuclear power plants on the sites of former coal-fired power stations such as Loy Yang in Victoria. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Peter Dutton’s launch of the Coalition’s nuclear policy this week is for all intents and purposes the beginning of the election campaign. Dutton and the Coalition should be commended for putting a bold idea before the Australian people, with conviction. Voters will welcome an open and sensible debate about nuclear energy.

The challenge is – as Anthony Albanese and Labor found with the voice referendum – boldness and conviction don’t always translate to votes. Whatever one could say about the current term of parliament, no one could say it has been bereft of big ideas.

A lot is being written with respect to the “detail” of the Coalition’s nuclear policy. At one level the detail does matter but, at the same time, most voters will never engage with it.

Detail matters to the extent voters believe the Coalition has a well-considered plan and whether they think a Dutton government could ultimately execute that plan if elected. It also matters that voters can be reassured about top-of-mind concerns such as if nuclear energy will reduce their power bills, keep the lights on, reduce emissions and use proven safe nuclear technology.

But what many are missing in unpacking the politics is the potential for Dutton’s nuclear policy to appeal implicitly to a broader audience.

That audience includes hardworking, middle-income voters who for the past two years have seen their personal financial position deteriorate. For them, no one is guaranteeing there won’t be another rate rise, or offering a timetable for when their wages will outpace inflation again, or when power bills will fall. It includes young people locked out of the housing market as first-home buyers.

Again, no one has been able to propose a credible solution to meet housing demand and many are feeling like the Australian dream of owning their own home is getting further and further out of reach.

What Dutton’s nuclear policy speaks to is his willingness to tackle big problems facing the nation with solutions that challenge the status quo.

For many economically disaffected voters, who may be undecided or not even care about energy policy, it’s a leadership style that will resonate. They want to champion the underdog, a leader who represents a bit of common sense and their view of the world. They will be driven by the hope that by supporting Dutton and the Coalition on this issue, other intractable problems in their daily lives – what they really care about – might attract similar big-picture thinking.

That the Coalition faces an uphill battle selling nuclear energy cannot be understated. It has been reported that the party’s internal polling suggests 55 per cent of voters in Gippsland support nuclear. The challenge is that the sitting Nationals MP Darren Chester was elected on a two-party-preferred vote of 70.57 per cent in 2022. That means there is around 15 per cent of voters who supported Chester last election who currently do not support nuclear.

The critical question is whether this dynamic is replicated across other seats, particularly the marginal seats that will decide the outcome of the next election.

If so, there is potentially considerable political gain for Labor. Even if a small amount of these “Coalition but not nuclear” voters could shift to Labor on the basis of a “nuclear referendum”, it potentially opens up a pathway for Labor to retain majority government.

Make no mistake though: memes and political games won’t cut it with economically stressed voters looking for real leadership on the issues that matter to them.

The Coalition, by launching the policy now, has given itself time to both reassure its base on the merits of the policy and work to persuade largely disengaged soft voters. It would not have been possible to achieve both these objectives in a 30-day election period. In this context, Labor must surely be weighing an early election if it sees support swing back to the party.

Regardless of what unfolds, the next election won’t be fought over trivial differences. Voters will face a very clear choice of competing plans and visions for the nation.

Mark Gorter is a director with CT Group Australia.