Dutton’s migration mistakes still haunt the Coalition
Senior Coalition figures are still lamenting Dutton’s fumbling on migration policy, which exposed the Liberals and Nationals to damaging political attacks.
Ahead of the imminent release of the Liberal Party election review, Coalition sources confirmed the clear view of Dutton’s shadow cabinet was that the easiest way to reduce the NOM was cutting international student numbers.
Despite promising sweeping reforms to rein in record migration levels, Dutton, a former home affairs and immigration minister, struggled to explain the economic ramifications and execution of his policy positions.
While the election review will discuss political mistakes and missteps in selling gas, nuclear energy, working from home, economic and defence policies, the migration stuff-up is something that Liberals and Nationals want to rectify well ahead of the 2028 election.
Sussan Ley, who was Dutton’s deputy, faces a fork in the road moment as she manages competing internal pressure to either drastically slash migration levels or limit severe cuts.
Moderate Liberals believe it would be a massive misjudgment of politics to blame migrants for the housing crisis. They believe going down that route would let the Albanese government off the hook for failing to build more homes faster, fix workforce shortages and manage record migration levels.
Nationals and conservative Liberals believe a sharp reduction in the NOM is required, with some still supportive of a cut around 100,000.
As grumpy conservative voters shift to One Nation, Coalition MPs understand they must adopt a tough migration policy that restricts visa classes, targets foreign students gaming the system, overhauls the skilled occupation list and requires migrants to adhere to stronger Australian values and language tests. There has previously been discussions about increasing visa costs, given Australia is a desirable destination for migrants.
There is collective support for a migration policy that removes union interference.
From the regions to the cities, a Coalition migration policy will ensure that the skilled and unskilled workers Australia needs – from hospitality to construction – are not locked out.
As revealed by The Australian in November, Ley will unveil migration policy “principles and directions” before Christmas.
A fixed NOM number will not be included in the initial policy reveal. Economic modelling will test immigration cut scenarios against economic and skilled workforce impacts. It would be insane for an opposition to set a hard and fast target 29 months out from the 2028 election.
The higher the cut, the greater impact on economic output.
Polling consistently shows voters are deeply concerned about high migration levels.
Newspoll last month showed 64 per cent of voters wanted fewer people moving permanently to Australia, including 39 per cent who wanted “a lot fewer”.
The dilemma for both the Albanese government and Coalition is addressing the vexed immigration challenge while balancing economic and workforce demands.
Political courage is required to stop lazy governments relying on migration to prop up the budget.
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Peter Dutton’s confusion about the difference between net overseas migration and permanent migration, and how sharp cuts to foreign student numbers would dramatically trim net overseas migration, fuelled one of the great policy failures of the May 3 election.