Donald Trump’s Ukraine ‘plan’ is might is right, not realpolitik
We should always distrust historical parallels, especially those with World War II. They have almost always been misused. Yet Donald Trump’s overture to Vladimir Putin sounds like a terrifying echo of the betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Even before negotiations have started, Trump has implicitly given away a NATO guarantee to secure observance of any agreement made and has already conceded the loss of pre-2014 territory without obtaining any concession in return. If that is his Art of the Deal, then it is a very lopsided one to say the least.
The fundamental issue Trump ignores in his focus on land is sovereignty.
Vladimir Putin is determined to destroy Ukraine’s independence. Even if an “agreement” on territory is forced on Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin will continue to do everything he can afterwards, by sabotage, asymmetric conflict and probably a renewed military attack, to make Ukraine into an unviable national entity.
We should not forget that Hitler’s occupation of Czechoslovakia was a two-stage operation. First, he secured the Sudetenland, which made the country unable to defend itself, then in March 1939 he ripped up the Munich Agreement and the Wehrmacht marched in.
One of Putin’s key demands will be the return of all confiscated Russian assets and funds abroad, which should be paid to Ukraine for reconstruction in compensation for what the country has suffered. Putin is determined that Ukraine and its people should remain utterly impoverished and under his thumb for having resisted his invasion.
There has been no mention in Trumpist Washington of the unprovoked war itself and of the consequent war crimes, including the deliberate attacks on civilian targets, mass looting, widespread rape, random torture of prisoners, including some cases of castration, and the kidnapping of Ukrainian children for brainwashing as Russians.
He is, of course, obsessed about his country’s rapidly declining birthrate. To draw a veil over such a state of affairs is not just realpolitik. It is the most flagrant example of “might is right” since the Second World War, and if the US goes ahead in this direction, then it should hang its head in shame.
The exclusion of Ukraine from the proposed initial meeting in Saudi Arabia flies in the face of any natural justice. Both Trump and Pete Hegseth, his surprising choice as Secretary of Defence, appear determined to ignore Allied leaders and even NATO, and in the process split the West by casting European defence adrift.
If any disagree or criticise, then Trump will bully them into submission with the threat of tariffs, just as he did with Colombia and the return of immigrants. The arrogance and irresponsibility is simply breathtaking. Trump insists on dictating a settlement that he is not even prepared to guarantee in any way.
He will not provide any US forces as peace enforcers, nor so far any air support or missile protection. He regards it as Europe’s fault and its mess to clean up.
The ghastly truth is that Trump is right in one respect. Most European nations, definitely including the UK, are indeed at fault for their terrible complacency ever since the fantasy of the “peace dividend” following the collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago.
Successive governments have allowed their armed forces to be hollowed out relentlessly to save paying the basic insurance premiums every state owes as its primary duty to its people.
This has continued even after the warning lights have started flashing. Contracts to replace the ammunition provided to Ukraine over the past three years have still not been signed. If the British Army were to send 20,000 troops to man a redefined Ukrainian border, as per the Trump outline plan, they would not have the ammunition to last more than a week if the Russian forces were to make a move.
The rejoicing in Moscow at Trump’s démarche speaks for itself. Putin must be rubbing his hands in glee. Yet Trump, the self-proclaimed peacemaker, probably sees himself as far greater than Roosevelt and Churchill in 1945, carving up the world with Joseph Stalin by imperiously deciding the fate of the countries of central and southern Europe. That was not realpolitik. It was “might is right” writ large. It looks like being the case again. The “great man” theory of history is back with a vengeance.
Trump might convince himself he is in charge of events, but with his attention diverted to the Far East, Putin will be able to pick his time to break any agreement on spurious grounds and finally destroy Ukraine’s will and independence.
And with mounting evidence that the younger generation in Europe have no intention to fight for their freedom, the temptation for Putin to push on and take back other former members from the Tsarist empire will be immense.
Trump’s ignorance and disregard of history extends to his view of other countries and regions. He has clearly forgotten Ambrose Bierce’s warning that “War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography”.
Sir Antony Beevor is a military historian and author of more than a dozen books, including The Second World War, Ardennes 1944: Hitler’s Last Gamble and Russia: Revolution and Civil War. This article first appeared in Engelsberg Ideas.
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