It would be a miracle if Australia were to win an exemption this week from Donald Trump’s new steel and aluminium tariffs after his extraordinary spat with former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
The Albanese government’s chances of an exception were already sliding fast before the Trump-Turnbull dust-up, with repeated Australian diplomatic overtures falling on deaf ears in the Trump White House.
But everyone knows that the only person who really counts in this decision is the President himself, who has until Thursday (AEDT) to grant any exceptions to his 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports.
So now the famously glass-jawed Trump has Turnbull’s criticisms ringing in his ears as he decides whether to grant a special exemption to Australia. This will not help. Most presidents would dispassionately separate any criticism from an ex-prime minister from America’s current policy priorities. But Trump has already shown that his presidency is driven as much by moods, whims, emotion, favours and threats as it is by actual policy. Some might question why Turnbull would choose to do such a high-profile Bloomberg TV interview just days before the deadline for tariff exemptions.
But the bigger question is why would Trump bother lashing out at a former Liberal prime minister who has not been in office for almost seven years and who clearly does not speak for the current Labor government.
The Trump-Turnbull relationship has been turbulent, with Trump lashing out at the then-prime minister in January 2018 only days into his first term with a terse phone call over the so-called “refugee deal”. The two leaders then repaired their relationship to a solid and workable level.
Yet since Turnbull left politics he has been an increasingly vocal critic of Trump, saying America under Trump has now become an unreliable ally.
However, Turnbull is only one of many Western former leaders who now criticise Trump from the sidelines. Kevin Rudd was one of them before he was muzzled by being appointed Australia’s ambassador in Washington.
What Turnbull said about Trump in the Bloomberg interview was not wrong. He said Trump’s erratic behaviour and his poor treatment of allies was providing “an opportunity” for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
He also made the obvious point that Trump’s tariffs are ultimately self-defeating, saying Trump “seems to have a view that America can prosper at the expense of everyone else, but that’s not going to work”.
The Albanese government would privately agree with both of these comments, although it could never say so.
Trump’s counter-attack was typically over the top, saying, “I always thought he was a weak and ineffective leader and, obviously, Australian’s (sic) agreed with me” – suggesting he didn’t know Turnbull was toppled by his own Liberal Party rather than voters.
Trump also said Turnbull “never understood what was going on in China, nor did he have the capacity to do so”. This is wrong. Turnbull had many failings as prime minister, but China was not one of them.
The Turnbull government significantly toughened its policies towards China, angering Beijing by banning the Chinese telco Huawei on security grounds and then introducing foreign interference laws.
I was living in Washington as The Australian’s US correspondent at that time and saw first-hand how the Trump administration watched and admired Australia’s tougher approach to Beijing. Australia became a template for Trump’s tougher policy towards China.
Even without the new Trump-Turnbull spat, the chances of Australia winning another exception to steel and aluminium tariffs, as it did in 2018, is looking less likely by the day. Trump initially said he would give “great consideration” to a potential exemption for Australia, but the President’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, then accused Australia of dumping subsidised steel and aluminium into the US market.
In recent days, Rudd was unable to achieve a breakthrough in a meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, while Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, said he doubted any exemptions would be granted.
Trade Minister Don Farrell has ruled out an 11th-hour trip to Washington for now because the prospects of an exemption seem grim. Anything is possible with Trump, so there is still a small hope of a last-gasp escape. But Trump Mark II seems to like his tariffs even more than Trump Mark I did.
The Turnbull spat makes it even less likely that America’s emperor will raise his thumb to spare our steel and aluminium industries from what will be an unjust and unwarranted tax.
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