Donald Trump’s indictment over Stormy Daniels payments will only boost Republican support
Next week the former president as part of any routine arraignment in New York will likely be handcuffed, fingerprinted, and have his mug shot taken, a considerable political victory for the former president’s political opponents. But at what broader cost?
The historic first ever charge of a former president, for obscure alleged crimes that occurred almost seven years ago, will rally Republicans, even those who disapprove of Mr Trump, to declare their support for the former president, who will cast himself, probably successfully, as a martyr.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis, the most likely challenger to Mr Trump for the GOP nomination, said the state of Florida would not “not assist in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at issue with this Soros-backed Manhattan prosecutor and his political agenda” a few hours after the indictment emerged.
This is almost incredible, foreshadowing the fragmentation of the US over a critical question, putting the US government in Washington in a very awkward position. Will New York authorities kidnap Mr Trump?
While the details of the charges remain unknown, the decision of Democrat New York prosecutor Alvin Bragg to press ahead with them on Thursday (Friday AEDT) is a highly risky strategy which could fail legally and politically. If the case goes to trial, it will take only one juror to derail the prosecution.
The hush money payments to Stormy Daniels in 2016 are not in dispute, nor were such payments themselves illegal.
Rather, the high-profile Democrat prosecutor will need, experts say, to prove that Mr Trump deliberately falsified business records with an intent to break federal election rules, which prevent political donations over a certain threshold.
The statute of limitations has well passed, requiring significant legal gymnastics.
It’s hard to see the wisdom in an indictment from the perspective of the nation as a whole. To be sure, the army of Trump haters will seize on the indictment with glee. But many Americans will take the opposite view.
Even a third of Democrats (70 per cent of independent voters, and 93 per cent of Republican) believed any indictment of Mr Trump would stem from political not legal motivations, according to a Quinnipiac poll taken last week.
The court of public opinion will matter as much as any actual court trial.
Many ordinary Americans, unfamiliar with the minutiae of corporate New York or federal election law, will struggle to understand why, seven years after the supposed crime, Mr Trump will be dragged through the mud on this particular issue.
Mr Bragg, the relevant district attorney for Manhattan, a city in the midst of a surge in violent crime, has chosen to press charges for an alleged crime both his predecessor and the Department of Justice, turned down.
American presidents have been philanderers since the nation’s founder. Voters are picking leaders, not pastors.
Mr Trump’s support among Republicans has been steadily increasing, most notably in relation to Florida governor Ron DeSantis, since his announcement in November that he would run for president for a third time.
The glib line ‘no one is above the law’ won’t be persuasive for many.
District Attorneys have limited resources in money and staff and must decide which alleged crimes to be prosecuted. Jaywalking is illegal in New York, but it is rarely enforced.
The case against Trump over his behaviour surrounding the 2020 election, where he phoned up Georgia officials to ask about finding around 12,000 votes, would be a stronger legal and political case.
“I promise you this: This Witch Hunt will BACKFIRE MASSIVELY on Joe Biden,” Mr Trump, who has already raised millions from the indictment before it even emerged, said in an email to his followers in a campaign finance email.
Nate Silver, among the most famous pollsters in the US, pointed out a few hours before the indictment emerged that the former president’s detractors were wrong to assume Mr Trump would lose in 2024 in a match up with Mr Biden, putting the chance of an upset at 40 per cent.
This indictment will change those probabilities. It’s still too early to forecast how.
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Donald Trump’s indictment for the least serious of all the array of allegations arrayed against him – hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 — will boost Republican support for the former president and foreshadows a highly divisive, perhaps violent, lead up to the 2024 presidential election.