Donald Trump is back in the saddle, and his massive Iowa victory bodes poorly for Joe Biden
Watch out Joe Biden, Donald Trump and his MAGA movement are back in the saddle.
Trump’s victory in Iowa was staggering. Trump often claims records he doesn’t hold. But this is a record he does hold – the biggest victory in contested Iowa caucuses by a non-incumbent president ever, more votes than all his rivals combined.
Unless he suffers a catastrophic health crisis, or actually physically goes to jail (and maybe even if he does), Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the Republican presidential candidate in November, following his crushing electoral victory in Iowa.
At this stage, Trump looks a good deal stronger politically than he did in 2016.
These numbers should terrify Biden, for they show Trump stronger than he’s ever been with demographics – college educated voters, professional women, urban voters – that have been weak for him in the past. Trump has many faults and is a chronic liar. But the wild and frequently dishonest demonisation of Trump, the plainly politicised legal prosecutions against him and the Democratic misuse of institutions, has paradoxically convinced voters that Democrat noise about Trump is irrelevant blah. Trump’s worst enemies, as ever, are his best friends.
By telling so many lies about Trump, Democrats have immunised him against the truth.
More important than that, Biden is a weak president grossly vulnerable on illegal immigration, cost of living, energy policy, the woke weirdness of so much of his party and his own plainly failing powers. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who both did very badly in Iowa after spending many tens of millions of dollars, are running against Trump. Trump is running against Biden.
Of course, nothing about the actual general election is predictable, even though Trump is leading Biden in general election polls right now. At this stage in 1984, Walter Mondale looked strong against Ronald Reagan. For a period of the nominating process in 2008, John McCain was ahead of Barack Obama in the polls. Yet Reagan and Obama both won convincingly.
But of course, as a campaigner, Biden is no Reagan, he’s not even an Obama.
One of the absolutely unprecedented elements of this US electoral cycle is that, within their respective parties, both Trump and Biden are effectively incumbents. And it’s all but impossible for an incumbent to lose their party’s nomination.
Unless one of them bows out of their own accord, it looks almost certain to be a Trump/Biden contest.
DeSantis narrowly came second but was more than 30 points behind Trump and spent tens of millions of dollars on the effort. He has proven a mostly wooden campaigner, though he is certainly getting better at it.
Haley should be bitterly disappointed at coming third. She now needs a stellar performance in next week’s primary in New Hampshire, a strong second and no more than 10 points behind Trump, to have a chance of at least making it a two-person race. DeSantis barely troubles the pollsters in New Hampshire so, while the Republican field is much smaller than it was at this stage in 2016, the internal opposition to Trump within the Republican Party is still fragmented and feeble.
Nonetheless, the battle for second between DeSantis and Haley is still important, because Trump could conceivably fall over, legally or medically.
But even if Haley does well in New Hampshire she would not be guaranteed as Trump’s replacement. She does well with moderates, independents and liberals within the Republican coalition. She hasn’t caught fire with anything much of the conservative base, by far the majority in the Republican Party.
DeSantis, provided he remains minimally credible, would be better placed than Haley to replace Trump if necessary.
However, even if he goes to jail, even if he’s in hospital, Trump could probably decisively influence who his replacement might be.
But polls and prognostications matter much less than actual elections. In this actual election in Iowa, whether it makes you weep or rejoice, the result is Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.
Even if Trump ends up losing to Biden, his perverse personality will dominate American politics this year, indeed global politics, as will his issues – illegal immigration, competition with China, nationalism of all kinds.
Watch out world, we’re in for a wild, wild ride.
More Coverage
Trump’s Ukraine rhetoric a dangerous turning point
Kyiv, its leader Volodymyr Zelensky and the free world, of which Donald Trump is supposed to be the leader, deserve better than the US President’s parroting untruths from Moscow’s playbook.
Green dreams to cost taxpayers
Popular as it might be in Whyalla, the decision by Anthony Albanese and SA Premier Peter Malinauskas to rescue the city’s steelworks raises serious concerns for taxpayers.