Dimming Plibersek’s light may shadow Labor’s performance

New Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek. Picture: Colin Murty

Often in politics it’s actually what’s left unsaid that is as interesting as the public pronouncements of the day. A case in point has been the frontbenches announced by Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

Both have chosen the standard three-course set menu available at Canberran eating establishments such as Otis Dining or Chairman and Yip – a cold starter of revenge, main course capable of doing the job, and dessert actually still being there in three years.

Dutton has rewarded supporters such as Ted O’Brien and demoted those closest to his predecessor, Scott Morrison, by dumping Alex “NSW Preselections” Hawke outright and demoting Canberra flatmate Stuart Robert to be an assistant shadow minister. Linda Reynolds is mercifully leaving the shadow ministry all together, her time in office best summed up as “not waving, just drowning”.

The Liberals have a huge task ahead, but not an insurmountable one. Kevin Rudd gained 23 seats after the disaster Mark Latham left in 2004. Bill Shorten made up 14 seats and just fell short after Labor’s rout in 2013 by Tony Abbott.

The Liberals will win back at least three seats from the teals – Mackellar, Kooyong and North Sydney – therefore needing only a further 15 from Labor at the next election. Dutton knows this and, with the lowest winning primary vote, Albanese knows it too.

Both leaders have hailed the achievement of more women than ever being on their frontbenches and it’s a worthy achievement for both numerically. Yet it’s the women who didn’t make it that are just as noteworthy.

With Labor choosing to have just four ministers from the Senate it’s cast aspersions over the capabilities of the remaining 22 Senate colleagues. Clear talent such as Deb O’Neill, Jenny McAllister and trans rights warrior Louise Pratt have been overlooked, not invited to join the Heathers at the top table.

Louise Pratt. Picture: AAP

Jenny McAllister. Picture: 7 News

As veteran political commentator and The Australian columnist Graham Richardson wrote a week out from the election, “in the Labor caucus the knives are being sharpened”.

Current frontbenchers had caucus numbers being whipped to have them dumped despite years of service. Many others missed out again, like Tim Watts, held back from the ministry despite entering parliament the same year as Jim Chalmers.

The only lack of discipline from Albo was moving Tanya Plibersek from education to the environment and water. She was treated like Cinderella for most of the election campaign but it’s notable Labor’s electoral numbers rebounded only once Plibersek was back on the campaign trail.

Her post-election demotion is a regrettable “get square”. Reportedly told only a few hours beforehand by Albanese of her portfolio change, she is the clearest alternative leader to Albo, who starts his term as the least popular of any incoming prime minister. Albanese knows all about how Labor topples elected prime ministers.

He watched as Julia Gillard used the education portfolio to meet backbencher after backbencher across Australia. Building the Education Revolution, all while building her national profile and caucus numbers to become Labor’s natural challenger to Rudd. Equally, Albanese was the chief numbers man for Rudd when they used electoral popularity and unelectability as the excuse to dump the first woman to be prime minister, six months out from the federal selection in 2013.

Labor has had plenty of other leadership challenges since Albanese become an MP. He has been “doing the numbers” and “fighting Tories” since 1996, though it wasn’t until 2013 he actually ran himself for leadership.

Kristina Keneally has been scrubbed off the alternative leaders list after she lost the seat of Fowler to independent Dai Le (pictured). Picture: John Feder

His campaign included winning the party membership vote but losing the support of his own caucus colleagues from the Left in 2013, thereby delivering the leadership to Shorten. It has always galled Albanese that he lost eight caucus votes from his own Left faction in 2013.

Plibersek and Albanese have intertwined histories dating back decades and I’m assured by those who were counting the numbers, she voted for Albanese in 2013. Still, she raised the ire of the Albanistas when she became Shorten’s very capable deputy leader and shadow minister for education.

Again in 2021, as Albanese struggled against a then popular Morrison, trade union leaders called for him to be replaced by none other than Plibersek.

Australia hasn’t seen a full two-term Labor prime minister since Bob Hawke. Little point actually fulfilling your manifest destiny of becoming Labor prime minister if you don’t get to keep it once you’ve got there. If you want to win back-to-back premierships and “change the country”, then you’ve got to have one eye on the electorate and one eye on your caucus.

Albanese has seen Kristina Keneally scrubbed off the alternative leaders list by losing the seat of Fowler.

Chalmers can count on only two of the four Queensland Right caucus votes as certainties and will be remembered for budget deficits, rising inflation and crippling interest rates.

Promoting Jason Clare just means Chris Bowen and Tony Burke have more internal competition for the support of the NSW Right. And, well, Victoria has Richard Marles.

The clearest choice for a Labor caucus desperate for a second win and to hold their seats after this next three years of an Albanese government would be the tried and tested formula of changing your leader. Just as football teams boot out coaches to improve their chances, so do political parties their leaders.

But a change of leadership needs a willing and well recognised alternative. Boris Johnson has survived Partygate because no clear challenger has emerged, yet. Likewise, Malcolm Turnbull thought he was safe until “he’s my man” became the man. Rudd did until a pat on a back from a fellow Queenslander became a reconnaissance exercise for a knife.

Though some see Rudd’s ALP leadership rules as being an impediment to a leadership challenge, the truth is they can be amended with a simply majority vote of the Labor caucus.

Plibersek is a future Labor leader and was from the time she arrived to join her neighbouring seat holder, Albanese, in parliament.

By demoting, not promoting, her, by choking off her opportunity to shine, the Praetorian guard of Penny Wong, Katy Gallagher and Tim Ayres around Albanese are doing their best to teach the challenger an early lesson and to keep Albanese the leader, even as the external operating environment gets considerably harder and more treacherous to navigate and Labor needs its best and brightest out selling Labor’s message.

Cameron Milner has worked on 33 election campaigns for Labor across 30 years.