Defend ourselves? We don’t even know who we are
There is a grim reality to Anthony Albanese’s historic thumping of the Coalition: Australia will keep coasting along in strategic affairs.
Our cautious approach to China will continue, emboldening Beijing’s regional assertiveness and undermining the strategic balance in Asia. Defence spending will remain woefully inadequate, potentially placing us in the crosshairs of Donald Trump and his distaste for free-riders and freeloaders. Happy days, so long as we don’t rock the boat.
When did Australia become the scrawny kid in the playground consistently targeted for lunch money? We are now at the point where we offer up the goods as soon as we get to school, fearful of any altercation, just wanting to get through the day. We’ve stopped asking questions of our defence representatives and that has enabled an entire system to take root that awards stability and caution over bold action.
Bleating about Trump 2.0 or ruminating on the future of AUKUS is a popular fixture among Canberra’s “strategic community” and commentariat. But will commentary on the perils of an isolationist America change Australian policy? No.
Will a blow-by-blow account of our historical mateship squawked from an X post jolt Washington? No. Does a sound bite on the promise and potential of AUKUS have any repercussions? No.
Sure, the discourse is loud, but it’s repetitive and vacuous.
As a nation we have killed subject matter expertise and stomped out contestability. It is no wonder we lack the building blocks to provide a vision of strategic policy for the next generation.
This government wouldn’t have it any other way.
Beneath our learnt ambivalence is a hard truth: we are unsure of our place, who we are and what we want in the world.
Australia’s defence plan is wedded to a policy of pay now and receive later, with wild assumptions that the environment of the future will somehow rhyme with today’s circumstances. The sands are shifting beneath our feet daily; our great American mate slaps tariffs on us one day and breaks bread with Vladimir Putin the next.
The AUKUS deal – specifically the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines – was sold as the solution to countering the regional assertiveness of China. In effect, this plan ties Australia to a decades-long project with uncertain results while diverting resources from more immediate needs of middle-power Australia.
A clear AUKUS vision would prioritise adaptability, diversification and scalability as hallmarks of policy.
Any vision certainly would light a fire under pillar two and undertake a reassessment of just what the hell we are actually doing.
Australia has lost its way in terms of innovation, research and development too.
Government missed an opportunity to celebrate Australian innovation with the recent sale of the Jindalee Operational Radar Network to Canada. We’re home to some of the world’s best radar technology – just look to our homegrown CEA Technologies.
These are decades-old stories of Australian innovation and defence solutions changing the world. Today? International firms are selected over national ones to forge 155mm munitions.
We are a democracy with high living standards. But in an era of sharpened confluence between enduring strategic competition, resource insecurity and shifting political orders, merely “muddling through” is not sufficient.
Nor can we look to traditional sources of comfort – the US is redefining its own national interests and reordering its strategic priorities. As it is entitled to do so.
Countries such as Singapore and Norway offer more relevant guides for today’s Australia. Both provide a clear strategic vision for their nations, built on agility and clear-eyed understanding of their unique national interests. They have prepared their populations for tough times.
If we don’t know what we are fighting for, who we want to be in the international community and how we get there, concepts such as preparedness and resilience hardly matter.
Australia continues to permit external forces and legacy piecemeal platitudes masquerading as foreign policy, to define and shape our place in the world. Where is our ambition?
This is the true pressing whole-of-nation endeavour our country faces: rediscovering, or reinventing, the Aussie spirit to innovate, contest and shore up our own future. All the things that won’t see daylight under this government.
The upside of Albanese’s win is we can keep on coasting, baby. Printing money for a long list of half-baked defence schemes that our kids will foot the bill for. Continuing to duck and weave hard strategic choices. It is high time for a national discussion on Australia’s purpose and place in the world. Just don’t expect action, Australia has not voted for that.
Elizabeth Buchanan is a senior fellow with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
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Wrong lessons are the path to doom
The question now is whether Albanese dares to be bold and makes the much needed course corrections or does he double down on a leftist agenda that locks in a cycle of economic doom.