Daniel Andrews still has a lock on next election

Victorians apparently prefer to recall Daniel Andrews’ successes over his failures. Picture: Getty Images

When the winds of change blow on politicians they tend to be cold, brutal and unforgiving. After a long and successful occupancy of Victoria’s top job, pressure is mounting on Daniel Andrews.

The past few weeks have been the most difficult of his career. Enemies are massing at his gate and he hangs on to office by the skin of his teeth. He is no longer regarded as the unbeatable face of Victorian Labor.

But the amazing thing about him is that, despite the bucketing he has copped, he is still favoured to win the next Victorian election.

To remove him as Labor leader would be suicidal. The Liberals have little hope of getting really close to victory. The Opposition Leader couldn’t land a blow on Andrews if the Premier was tired to a tree. When your Opposition is hopeless your mistakes go largely ignored and unpunished.

Labor’s Mick Young in 1977.

Andrews has mishandled aspects of the pandemic crisis and been uncharacteristically slow to acknowledge and apologise for errors. But Victorians apparently prefer to recall his successes rather than his failures.

Elections are often lost rather than won. Australians will throw out poor performers, but they will usually give their elected representatives one term of government to get things right.

Longevity in politics requires three things: You must be able to remain popular in the electorate and popular in the party, and you also have to stay strong and hold your nerve.

One of the best politicians I ever saw was Mick Young. He had a great sense of humour, which he would employ in parliamentary debate to at times devastating effect. When I heard he was resigning because of the fallout from him bringing in a Paddington Bear without having declared it to Customs I tried to talk him around. He said: “Richo, I have lost my battle and I can’t face another hostile debate.”

There is no coming back from that position because the higher up the tree you go the bigger target you become. Mick had become a prime target and knew he could expect no mercy.